March 1, 2018 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
This morning President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum “for a long period of time.” The President said he will sign a formal order next week. The timing couldn’t be much worse as far as global financial markets are concerned.
February 16, 2018 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Volatility |
Before this market rout and from the safety of the World Economic Forum in Davos, hedge fund legend Ray Dalio talked about the coming bear market in bonds and likelihood that we were near the end of this cycle of economic boom. Sometime in the next two years, he remarked, we were likely to experience a recession and that would put an end to one of the longest periods of economic growth in the United States. With the experience of the big market rout of January 26 through February 8 behind us–if it indeed is–when the Standard & Poor 500 stock index fell 9.03%, I’d like to make Dalio’s comments a little more explicit and apply them more directly to the stock market.
December 4, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term, PXD, Stock Alerts |
When West Texas Intermediate crude was struggling to stay above $50 a barrel, the important issues for a U.S. oil shale producer such as Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) were How much of production in 2018 was hedged above $50 a barrel? and How quickly the company...
October 25, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing |
Chinese President Xi Jinping has centralized more power in his hands than any of his immediate predecessors. He’s certainly going to be able to pursue his goal of restoring China to its rightful place in the world economic and political order for the rest of his term–and beyond–without significant opposition. Expect an even more assertive China.
July 25, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Stock Alerts |
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February 24, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term, You Might Have Missed |
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February 16, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term, You Might Have Missed |
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February 15, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
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January 25, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term, You Might Have Missed |
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January 3, 2017 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
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December 15, 2016 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
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November 17, 2016 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
In his campaign Donald Trump promised to kill the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal and renegotiate NAFTA. Countries like China and Mexico faced the prospect of crippling tariffs on their goods. That left international economists deeply worried about a slowdown in global trade, a slowdown that might be sufficient to produce a global recession. Well, don’t worry. Even before Trump won the November 8 election globe trade had started to slow.
