Mid Term
Another indicator says U.S. economy is slowing
The U.S. service sector--which accounts for about 90% of U.S. economic activity--slowed in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index. The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Survey showed the index slipping to 56.7 in...
One consequence of the change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed's decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen climbing to...Market goes all in on “No interest rate increase for 2019”
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there's more chance of an interest rate cut than of a rate...
So how long before markets react to the dark side of today’s Fed decision?
Today the financial markets are in love with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise rates no more than once in 2019--and more likely zero. And that the central bank will re-examine its policy of letting its balance sheet run off to the tune of $50 billion a...
The U.S. is the Energizer Bunny of debt–It just keeps on borrowing
Here's one more macro trend to add to your list next to China trade war, Fed interest rates, and government shutdown. In 2019 the U.S. Treasury Department will maintain its sales of Treasuries at record levels near $1 trillion in new issuance for a second year in a...
Trick or Trend: Now there’s a volatility inversion to worry about
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Sunday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. You've...
Will a new kind of buyer push Treasury yields higher?
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Sunday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. The character...
Special Report: 10 Best Buy Stocks for after the bear (or for now if you think the bear is over.)
Is the bear market over? And if it is, what stocks should you target as "best buys." The first is a really, really tough question to answer now. News of new efforts to stimulate economic growth in China helped push the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index over...
Trick or Trend: Economists raise odds on U.S. recession but still see just 25% chance
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Economists...
Why I keep harping on 2600: The very important difference between a Bear market and a correction
I find myself watching the 2600 level on the Standard & Poor's 500 index with great intensity. Why? Because a break above that level versus a break below that level quite likely will mark the difference between a correction and a Bear market. And that difference...
Initial enthusiasm at Fed minutes from December fades in afternoon
So what, exactly, didn't the markets like about the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting? After an initial spike to the day's high at 2595 at 2:09 p.m. New York time, nine minutes after the 2:00 p.m. release of the minutes, the Standard & Poor's 500...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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