Mid Term
Drop in fear in credit markets isn’t a good sign at this point in the credit cycle
The level of fear among the managers of funds that buy investment-grade and high-yield debt has sunk to its lowest level since 2014, according to the Bank of America's March survey of fund managers. “The most notable change in our fresh survey of U.S. credit investors...
Another day, another cut to forecasts of global economic growth
Yesterday, March 6, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) joined the International Monetary Fund in warning that the global economy is slowing more than previously expected. "The global expansion continues to lose momentum," the OECD said in...
China tweaks growth target lower to 6%-6.5% from last year’s 6.6%
Against the setting of the National People's Congress, which opened today, China's leaders announced that the growth target for the economy in 2019 would be 6%-6.5%, down slightly from the 2018 target of 6.6%. That dip is significant since the Chinese Communist Party...The Fed’s minutes surprise, imagine that
As surprises go today's release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its January meeting doesn't rank up there with Agatha Christie. (Remember 10 Little Indians? Where the murderer turns out to be someone who had earlier faked his own murder?) But still as Fed...
The credit cycle sure looks like it’s headed off a cliff in U.S., China
With U.S. stock markets closed today for Presidents' Day, credit market news has an opening to move higher on the Investor Worry Bandstand. (The kids give it an 65, as they used to say on American Bandstand. But I think its moving up fast. The American Bandstand...
EuroZone economy is leading global slowdown
The 19-country EuroZone economy could expand by just 1% in 2019 with industrial production falling at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis. This time it's the core economies of Germany and France, which together make up about half of the EuroZone...
So long to 6% earnings growth for 2019–how about 1%?
Over the weekend I wrote about the possibility of an earnings recession in 2019. And I noted that the Wall Street analyst consensus for the year was pointing toward 6% growth in earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500, after a negative growth rate...
Another indicator says U.S. economy is slowing
The U.S. service sector--which accounts for about 90% of U.S. economic activity--slowed in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index. The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Survey showed the index slipping to 56.7 in...
One consequence of the change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed's decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen climbing to...Market goes all in on “No interest rate increase for 2019”
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there's more chance of an interest rate cut than of a rate...
So how long before markets react to the dark side of today’s Fed decision?
Today the financial markets are in love with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise rates no more than once in 2019--and more likely zero. And that the central bank will re-examine its policy of letting its balance sheet run off to the tune of $50 billion a...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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