Mid Term
Why predicting a bottom for this bear is so hard: More lessons from the charts
Once stocks have wound up in the jaws of a bear market, the most pressing question is when/where will it end? Which is tough to predict because we have a relatively small data set to project from--we've only had 12 bear markets (using the 20% drop from a high as our...
The key to this bear market–it’s global; and any turn about will have to be global too
If you're trying to figure out this market--and who isn't?--down 700 points on the Dow on Monday; up 1000 on Wednesday, down 400 points on Thursday before finishing up 250 points, I'd suggest starting with the observation that this bear market is global. In the United...
While OPEC argues, its control of the oil market ebbs
Two important piece of news that form the context for OPEC's meeting today and its attempt to set global oil prices. First, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the United States turned into a net exporter of oil last week for the first time in 75...
Citigroup warns of revenue growth shortfall for full 2018
At a time when we're worried about whether companies can deliver even low currently projected earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 and for 2019, this wasn't what investors wanted to hear from Citigroup (C) yesterday. The big banks will dominate the early days...
Could 2019 see earnings from non-U.S. markets grow faster than in U.S.?
Everyone's agreed that the growth rate for U.S. earnings will drop in 2019 from 2018. They're just not agreed on by how much. Yesterday I noted that Yardeni Research sees Wall Street estimates for earnings growth by the S&P 500 companies dropping to just 8.5% in...
It’s important to remember on this down, down, down day that an earnings growth slump in 2019 and a 2019 recession aren’t the same thing
It's hard to take a step back on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial average closed down more than 700 points (and 3.10%), but that's exactly what I'm going to suggest. The huge sell off was driven by three major factors in my opinion. First, the U.S. stock market...
China’s banking system springing leaks all over
Take your pick. Either story shows the deep stress in China's banking system at a time when China's economy is already slowing. Story 1: After trying to regulate the Peer to Peer lending industry, Beijing has decided to shut down most of the $176 billion market,...
U.S. dollar continues to climb, creating downdraft for emerging markets and oil, and supporting Treasuries
The U.S. Dollar Spot Index (DXY) is up again today, climbing 0.66% to 97.053. Since the index that tracks the dollar against six other major trading currencies bottomed for 2018 back on February 15, the dollar has gained 8.72%. The bulk of those gains are even more...
China’s Xi pushes back on trade deal
Remember last week when markets got all optimistic at the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping would be able to hammer out an end to the U.S.-China trade deal when they meet at the Group of 20 meeting in Buenos Aires on...
‘Tis the season–well “seasons” actually–for end of year selling, portfolio window dressing, small cap rallies, and the January effect
So many trends get packed into the last three months of the year--and you shouldn't forget about any of them when it comes to buying and selling. (You'll find lots of information on these and other calendar trends in the Stock Trader's Almanac by Jeffrey and Yale...
Words, yuan from Beijing push two-day rally to 7%
Friday's disappointing GDP report did goad China's government to action to support the stock market and the economy, as I wrote that it would in my Friday post. Words from Chinese President Xi Jinping helped continue the surge in Chinese stock prices off a 4-year low....Jim’s Stock Alerts
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