Mid Term
An interest rate sign of our times–3% on a CD
So there I was, minding my own business, walking down Broadway in my neighborhood, and what do I see in the window of a local bank: An offer for 3% on a five-year CD. Now this wasn't in the window of one of the megabanks that dominate this sector in New York. But it...
Emerging markets “emerging” as focus of worry over trade, strong dollar, credit crunch
If you can't tell from the cascade of negative commentary, you certainly should be able to tell from trend in share prices: emerging markets have become the focus of current worries about global trade, the effects of a strong dollar, and the potential for a credit...
Special Report on Investing in a Late Cycle Market Part 2: Sell offs in Late Cycle Markets are contagious, very contagious
The big reason to distinguish the business cycle from the credit cycle–as I did in Part 1 of this Special Report “Investing in a Late Cycle Market: Late Cycle Markets are crazy–Part 1, The problem”–is that the disruption caused by late credit cycle markets is way more contagious globally than the disruption created by late business cycle markets.
Secretary of State Pompeo demonstrates why you can never relax in this market
Just when global financial markets were ready to breathe a sign of relief at a “truce” in the U.S./China trade war, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a speech at the Heritage Foundation that included a promise to “track down Iranian operatives and their Hezbollah proxies operation around the world and crush them,” and presented a list of 12 demands that Iran must meet before the United States would be willing to end sanctions.
Could this change in international shipping regulations push Brent crude to $90 a barrel by 2020?
This development that could push the price of international benchmark Brent crude to $90 wasn’t on my radar screen. It should be–and it should be on yours. (Brent closed up 1.08% today to $79.28 a barrel.) Oil analysts at Morgan Stanley are arguing that changes in the kind of fuel that ocean-going vessels use will result in an additional spike in the price of oil. That’s besides whatever goes on with Iran, the Middle East, and OPEC.
My 2018 earnings boom profit strategy: Complete special report (Parts 1 and 2) with 7 picks
Here’s my complete 2018 earnings boom 2018 profit strategy Parts 1 and 2 with all seven picks. Part 1 originally ran on April 17. Part 2 originally ran on May 8.
Special premium report Part 1: My 2018 earnings boom profit strategy–and two picks
With the report of first quarter earnings season from Netflix (NFLX) on Monday, April 16, we’ve moved into the heart of earnings season. In most quarters traders began putting on plays for earnings announcements a few weeks before reporting starts. And they’ll keep making new bets over the next three weeks or so. In most quarters buying shares or options on companies about to report makes profitable sense. But this strategy is likely to be even more rewarding this year
China retaliates on tariffs; U.S. stocks fall again
It’s always hard to attribute a market move to one particular news event, but today the odds are good that this morning’s plunge in stock prices is in reaction to China’s decision to impose tariffs on 128 U.S. products in response to the Trump administration’s new tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The big target in China’s move is U.S. pork exports–the United States exported $1.1 billion in pork to China in 2017.
Fed raises interest rates and marks steeper path on future increases
Today, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short term interest rate another 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.  And forecast a steeper path of hikes in 2019 and 2020. Fed policy member remained divided over the outlook for 2018 with seven Fed officials projecting at least four interest rate increases in 2018 and eight expecting three or fewer.
Turning around the Jubak Picks portfolio: It takes time (frustrating amounts of time) but by late 2016 the recovery was in place: 2017 total return 13.13% despite 27.2% cash
Turning around a portfolio can take a frustratingly long time. The Jubak’s Picks portfolio has had a performance problem since 2014. But I think I’ve finally put a recovery in place. The total return on the portfolio was 13.1% in 2017. That still badly lagged the 21.7% total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500. But it’s promising–considering that the portfolio finished the year 27.2% in cash. (Which itself was better than the 37% cash at the end of 2016.)
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