Morning Briefing
Today markets see recession warning in inversion of the yield curve
It was always implicit in the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday that all interest increase in 2019 were off the table and that the central bank would end its $50 billion a month balance sheet run off in September. Yeah, lower interest rates are a boost to stock...
Odds for a Fed interest rate cut don’t move much overnight–but that’s because a huge move has already happened
The Federal Reserve's announcement that it would hold interest rates steady for 2019, that it would end its program to wind down the size of its balance sheet by $50 billion a month in September, and that it projects the economy will grow by just 2.1% in 2019 instead...
Too much China noise and not much actual news
“Talks with China are going very well,” President Donald Trump said yesterday, March 19, at a press conference on Tuesday. Well, probably not. But who really knows. Which is making global financial markets rather twitchy. Yesterday a Bloomberg report the China was...
It’s a FOMO market
"Fear of missing out" is driving this stage of the market rally. Fund managers were under allocated to equities at the start of the year and are now playing catch-up with the indexes. And since the consensus is that the Federal Reserve has the market's back, there's...After sliding to April, has Trump-Xi trade meeting slipped to June?
Over the weekend the South China Morning News reported that the proposed meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement ending the U.S.-China trade war may now be pushed back to June. That meeting had originally been scheduled for...
No March meeting on trade deal for Trump and Xi
A potential end of March meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end their trade war won’t take place this month after all. Media are reporting that multiple sources are now post to April at the earliest. If...
Durables orders good for stocks and economy
Orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in January, the Census Bureau reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a 0.6% decrease. Ex-transportation new orders, which means excluding volatile aircraft orders (for January remember and therefore...
Market tested 2800 again yesterday–new highs ahead or back to the box?
The Standard & Poor's 500 fitted with 2800 again before closing at 2791.52. That certainly puts the index within striking range of 2800 again--but in 2019 the market has shied away from breaking and holding the level. So consider this another test--until stocks...
Chaos in the U.K.: May loses another Brexit vote
Well, the vote was closer this time. After losing a vote on her Brexit deal by 230 votes in January, Parliament only defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal by 391 to 242 votes. Which still means that the United Kingdom is set to crash out of the European...
January retail sales better than expected; December gets revised lower yet
Headline retail sales rose 0.2% in January, the Census Bureau reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting a 0.1% drop for the month. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.9% for the month against a consensus projection of a 0.2% gain. Motor...
Shockingly low February jobs report this morning–but what’s the trend.
The U.S. economy added only 20,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 173,000 jobs for the month. In January the economy added 304,000 jobs. The huge swing left economists and Wall Street...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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