Morning Briefing
September 19, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a four-month low last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ended September 14. That’s the lowest level since the middle of May, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. And stocks soared.
September 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points Wednesday. The vote for a 50 basis point cut was 11-1 with the only negative vote–for a 25 basis point cut rather than 50–the first dissent in the Jerome Powell era. The Fed’s dot plot showed a narrow majority, 10 of 19 Fed officials, favoring at least an additional half-point in rate cuts at Fed’s two remaining 2024 meetings. The Federal Open Market Committee to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades. It was the Fed’s first rate cut in more than four years.
September 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Volatility |
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again from $128.83 on August 28 to $102.83 on September 6. But the shares are up again–15.83% last week–to $116.78 This canary seems to be sending a rather more complicated message than “Look I’m dead! See my feet in the air?” What’s the message, though?
September 13, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high in early September. The sentiment index from the University of Michigan increased to 69 from August’s 67.9, preliminary figures showed Friday. The median estimate in Bloomberg’s survey of economists called for a reading of 68.5. The biggest contributors to the improved sentiment reading were the tamest short-term inflation expectations since the end of 2020 and anticipation of a drop in borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates.
September 12, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, SCCO, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
China’s copper imports in August dropped by 12.3% from the previous year, preliminary official Chinese customs data showed on Tuesday, September 10. It’s yet another sign that the slowdown in Chinese economy is rippling out into the global economy.
September 11, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Definitely a mixed bag in the Consumer Price Index inflation report for August released today. I think the mixed results lower the odds of an aggressive 50 basis point interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. But they keep the odds of a cut–most likely 25 basis points–at 100%.
September 10, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
With Chinese stocks looking at an unprecedented fourth consecutive losing year, even some of Wall Street’s most conspicuous China bulls are throwing in the towel.
Over the past two weeks, long-standing China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management, Nomura Holdings, and JPMorgan Chase have all downgraded the country’s stocks. And there’s a growing consensus that China will fail to meet its economic growth target of around 5% this year. The money NOT flowing into China has made this a good year for stocks in India, Japan, and Taiwan.
September 9, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Congress returned to Washington today facing a September 30 deadline to pass legislation to keep the government open after the last stop-gap funding measure expires on September 30, the end of the 20214 fiscal year. The consensus view seems to be that there’s little to worry about and that Congress will, of course, cobble together another extension so close to the Presidential election. But we are talking about Congress, remember. It’s never a good idea to completely discount an act of astounding stupidity from Capitol Hill.
September 6, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today’s employment t report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the worst of both worlds. The increase in jobs of just 142,000 in August, coupled with downward revisions from June and July was enough to raise fears that the economy is stalling. And that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to cut interest rates. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of forecasters called for 165,000 new jobs win the month. But the employment number, which left the three-month average of new jobs created at the lowest since mid-2020, wasn’t bad enough to convince traders and investors that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September 18 meeting.
September 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Morning Briefing, Stock Alerts |
Kenvue (KVUEO) isn’t exactly new. As a stand-alone stock, Kenvue dates back only to May 2023, but the company is a spin off of Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) consumer division. The owner of household consumer names that include Tylenol, Nicorette, Listerine, and Zyrtec, Kenvue is the world’s largest pure-play consumer health company by sales. The stock closed on September 5 with a yield of 3.64%. Morningstar calculates that the shares are 16% undervalued and puts a $26 target price on the shares. The stock closed at $22.51 on September 5. I’m adding the stock to my Dividend Portfolio tomorrow. With the Federal Reserve extremely like to begin cutting interest rates at its September 18 meeting, a lot of investors are looking for higher yield with slid safety. I think Kenvue offers exactly that combination.
September 4, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021 and layoffs rose, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
September 4, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Coincidence? On Tuesday September 3 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if inflation continues in Japan. And on Tuesday U.S. stocks plunged. Sure seems like a replay of the August rout when U.S. markets fell as the Bank od Japan raised interest rates, the yen gained, and traders looked to close speculative yen carry trade bets by selling dollar-denominated assets in order to pay back yen loans that threatened to get more expensive with a rising Japanese currency.
