My one-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh YouTube video “We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation” went up today.
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick WEAT” went up today. I’m continuing my recent focus on wheat prices as they continue to rise. Higher wheat prices are the result of a perfect storm: the ongoing war in Ukraine, a blockade of Black Sea exports, and reduced yields from India (the 2nd largest wheat producer) due to temperatures and export bans. Teucrium Wheat Fund is the only ETF I’ve found that is focuses exclusively on wheat futures. I think this is a good time to buy and I’ll be adding this ETF to my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow.
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video “Looking for a wider credit crunch” went up today. I think last week’s video worrying about a credit crunch in the consumer economy was a bit too optimistic. I’m now seeing signs in the market of a wider credit crunch. In this video, I look at the junk bond market and its reflection in Bausch (BHC) as a test case as well as the trend in profits for the S&P 500. And another default in China’s property development sector as well as the possibility that the default by Sri Lanka is just the first sign of emerging market distress
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-fifth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Another Battery Investment” went up today. This week I’m looking at investments by fossil-fuel companies, such as Koch Industries, in battery technology stocks. Koch’s venture arm has made several investments–committing significant amounts of cash–in battery companies. Koch Industries isn’t alone. Big commodity trader Glencore seems to be following the same course. That company recently committed $200 million toLi-Cycle (LICY), a stock I’ve covered before and which has been pounded along with other battery and alternative energy stocks. The question for individual investors is whether they have as long a time horizon–and as big a tolerance for risk–as these big energy and commodities players.
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-third YouTube video “My fear is a credit crunch” went up today. My fear is a credit crunch. I’m not as concerned with the Fed raising rates, or a recession–those are sort of run of the usual events. But a credit crunch would be a different thing–think Global Financial Crisis. I think signs are pointing to a credit crunch on consumers, which threatens to make any coming recession much worse. In this video, I lay it out. Take a look, and be careful out there.
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-second YouTube video “Trend of the Week Give “Em the Cash” went up today. So far, so good this earnings season: oil and natural gas producers are holding the line on capital spending on new production, as they promised, and returning the huge increases in profits from the jump in oil and natural gas prices resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions slapped on Russian energy exports. And they’re returning those profits, as promised to shareholders as dividends. Big dividend payouts. Look at Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), for example, which beat earnings for the first quarter and raised its dividend payout to what amounts to better than 11% annualized. I think we’ll see this trend continue for a while, especially as many CEOs stick to the path of putting fewer resources into new exploration and production because they can’t be sure how long the current level of prices will last.
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-first YouTube video “Quick Pick: U.S. Natural Gas Fund” went up today. Natural gas hit an 18-year high in the United States on Thursday, May, even as oil was sliding. Consequently I’m looking for a pick that focuses on natural gas and not oil: my pick this week is United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG). I’ll use today’s drop in the price of natural gas and the 8.04% decline in UNG to add this pick to my Volatility Portfolio on Monday. I think that we’re going to see even higher gas prices as the war in Ukraine (and sanctions against Russia) grind on and as everyone rushes to build stock piles ahead of the inter heating season.
My one-hundredth-and-thirtieth YouTube video “Market gives Fed a razzberry” went up today. Yesterday, the Fed announced that it would raise rates by 50 basis points but that it was not looking to raise by 75 at the June or July meetings. In response, the market had a huge rally, especially in tech stocks, as it had b been widely assumed that those meetings would see the larger 75 basis-point increase. All that has changed today, when upon second thought the market no longer likes this news, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite giving back all the gains they made yesterday plus a little more. I look at a few specific stocks, like Amazon and Advanced Micro Devices, and talk about why I think the selloff in tech stocks is going to continue.
My one-hundredth-and-ninth-eighth YouTube video “Trend of the Week China’s back!” went up today. At the end of last week, the Chinese government sent signals that it would make moves to stimulate the slowing economy amid widespread lockdowns, as well as letting up slightly in its crackdown on internet companies. This has sent Chinese tech stocks soaring, with multiple percentage-point increases in a few hours. In this video, I look at Tencent (TCEHY), JD.com (JD), Alibaba (BABA) and Meituan (MPNGF) and talk about why this is an important trend to follow, but why we’ll only see these stocks go up in the short term before government pressure sends them back down.
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-seventh YouTube video “Lessons from Amazon” went up today. In this video I’m looking at Amazon’s (AMZN) earnings report after hours on April 28. The company delivered its first quarterly loss in 7 years. The shares closed down 14.05% the next day. I think that the questions Amazon is facing are important across the economy as we emerge from a Pandemic. For example, looking at Pandemic sales trends do you invest in fulfillment and shipping infrastructure to maintain consumer expectations for quick delivery or do you hold back on spending on the likelihood that post-Pandemic trends will revert to lower pre-Pandemic patterns? Amazon’s decision to invest in building out fulfillment, and its flat sales numbers, led to this quarterly loss. Other companies such as Uber, DoorDash, Netflix, Peloton, and Starbucks face the same issues going forward.
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-sixth YouTube video “Trend of the Week Are Food Delivery Stocks the Next Netflix” went up today. Will continued inflation and demand destruction from the Fed’s rate hikes added to changes in consumer behavior now that the Pandemic is on hiatus for warm weather, lead to lower discretionary spending in sectors such as food delivery. Using these apps can be expensive! Customers might cut back. Specifically, I’m looking at Just Eat Takeaway (TKAYF), which owns GrubHub; Uber (UBER), which is relying on UberEats for a big chunk of its growth; and DoorDash (DASH). You might want to avoid these stocks until we can figure out what the revenue trends are going to be over the next year.
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-fifth YouTube video “Quick Pick Plug Power” went up today. Plug Power is building out a network for green hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells. They’ve been involved in recent big deals with Walmart to power fork lifts in the company’s warehouses. And the company has Amazon, another big warehouse operator, as a customer too.The other market I like for Plug Power is backup power for data centers. This stock is very volatile, so be careful out. I’ll be adding it to my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com on Monday after the April 22 drop of 3.54%
