Videos
June 13, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fourth YouTube video “China Stocks Soar on End to Tech Crackdown” went up today. In the past few weeks–at least before the inflation/interest rate meltdown in U.S. markets,–I’ve seen an uptick in big China stocks like Alibaba (BABA), DiDi Global (DIDI), and JD.com (JD) on signs that Chinese regulators are easing up on tech stocks as the government tries to jump start China’s economy. If you’re looking for stocks that aren’t correlated to the U.S. economy and markets, I think this is a good time to revisit some of these stocks, especially JD.Com and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)
June 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-third YouTube video “Quick Pick Truist Financial” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Truist Financial Corp (TFC), a “super-regional” bank based in the Southeast. Bank stocks have been down recently on rising costs (got to pay more to keep your good people, these days), but Truist Financial, formed through a merger of BB&T and Sun Trust, is still taking out acquisition costs. My rule of thumb these days is to buy a dividend stock when the yield hits 4% or more. Thanks to the retreat in bank stocks Truist Financial now pays 4/02 plus with its share buyback plan the total yield hits 5.75%. I’ll be adding this Monday to my Dividend Income Portfolio on JubakPicks.com and JubakAM.com.
June 9, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-secondYouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds rising for a 75 basis point increase in July and/or September. I think these extreme bets on a 75 basis point increase have more to do with attitudes toward inflation than with actual belief in a 75-basis-point interest rate increase in those two months–that is that it will be tougher to bring it under control than the Federal Reserve now thinks. But these extreme positions are something to watch going forward. To one way of thinking they represent the chance for a rally in stocks if traders retreat from the 75-basis-point camp.
May 31, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-eighth YouTube video “Housing market cools” went up today. We’re seeing some of the first effects of the Fed’s increase in interest rates in the cooling of the housing market. In Austin, for example, the percentage of active listings with price cuts has increased, and we have seen the lowest number of new purchases since the start of the pandemic. Since many American families have a large portion (or all) of their wealth stored in their home, housing prices have a big effect on consumer spending. We might expect to see that slow consumer spending, which would help to control inflation.
May 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh YouTube video “We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation” went up today.
May 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick WEAT” went up today. I’m continuing my recent focus on wheat prices as they continue to rise. Higher wheat prices are the result of a perfect storm: the ongoing war in Ukraine, a blockade of Black Sea exports, and reduced yields from India (the 2nd largest wheat producer) due to temperatures and export bans. Teucrium Wheat Fund is the only ETF I’ve found that is focuses exclusively on wheat futures. I think this is a good time to buy and I’ll be adding this ETF to my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow.
May 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video “Looking for a wider credit crunch” went up today. I think last week’s video worrying about a credit crunch in the consumer economy was a bit too optimistic. I’m now seeing signs in the market of a wider credit crunch. In this video, I look at the junk bond market and its reflection in Bausch (BHC) as a test case as well as the trend in profits for the S&P 500. And another default in China’s property development sector as well as the possibility that the default by Sri Lanka is just the first sign of emerging market distress
May 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, LICY, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-fifth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Another Battery Investment” went up today. This week I’m looking at investments by fossil-fuel companies, such as Koch Industries, in battery technology stocks. Koch’s venture arm has made several investments–committing significant amounts of cash–in battery companies. Koch Industries isn’t alone. Big commodity trader Glencore seems to be following the same course. That company recently committed $200 million toLi-Cycle (LICY), a stock I’ve covered before and which has been pounded along with other battery and alternative energy stocks. The question for individual investors is whether they have as long a time horizon–and as big a tolerance for risk–as these big energy and commodities players.
May 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos, You Might Have Missed |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-third YouTube video “My fear is a credit crunch” went up today. My fear is a credit crunch. I’m not as concerned with the Fed raising rates, or a recession–those are sort of run of the usual events. But a credit crunch would be a different thing–think Global Financial Crisis. I think signs are pointing to a credit crunch on consumers, which threatens to make any coming recession much worse. In this video, I lay it out. Take a look, and be careful out there.
May 9, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-second YouTube video “Trend of the Week Give “Em the Cash” went up today. So far, so good this earnings season: oil and natural gas producers are holding the line on capital spending on new production, as they promised, and returning the huge increases in profits from the jump in oil and natural gas prices resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions slapped on Russian energy exports. And they’re returning those profits, as promised to shareholders as dividends. Big dividend payouts. Look at Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), for example, which beat earnings for the first quarter and raised its dividend payout to what amounts to better than 11% annualized. I think we’ll see this trend continue for a while, especially as many CEOs stick to the path of putting fewer resources into new exploration and production because they can’t be sure how long the current level of prices will last.
May 6, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos, Volatility |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-first YouTube video “Quick Pick: U.S. Natural Gas Fund” went up today. Natural gas hit an 18-year high in the United States on Thursday, May, even as oil was sliding. Consequently I’m looking for a pick that focuses on natural gas and not oil: my pick this week is United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG). I’ll use today’s drop in the price of natural gas and the 8.04% decline in UNG to add this pick to my Volatility Portfolio on Monday. I think that we’re going to see even higher gas prices as the war in Ukraine (and sanctions against Russia) grind on and as everyone rushes to build stock piles ahead of the inter heating season.
May 5, 2022 | AMD, AMZN, Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirtieth YouTube video “Market gives Fed a razzberry” went up today. Yesterday, the Fed announced that it would raise rates by 50 basis points but that it was not looking to raise by 75 at the June or July meetings. In response, the market had a huge rally, especially in tech stocks, as it had b been widely assumed that those meetings would see the larger 75 basis-point increase. All that has changed today, when upon second thought the market no longer likes this news, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite giving back all the gains they made yesterday plus a little more. I look at a few specific stocks, like Amazon and Advanced Micro Devices, and talk about why I think the selloff in tech stocks is going to continue.
