January 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The present–or more precisely the very recent past–didn’t look so good this morning, January 15. U.S. retail sales declined by 0.7% in December and the Commerce Department revised November to a drop of 1.4%. The unadjusted blue of sales rose by just 0.6% year over year in 2020. That’s the smallest gain in 11 years. Nobody expected the December retail sales numbers to be anything other than grim, however, and by themselves these figures wouldn’t have been enough to dent stock prices. The market has a strong recent history of looking past any negative news in the present because with the roll out of coronavirus vaccines with future looks so promising. But the future also disappointed today.
January 14, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment benefits through regular state programs climbed to 1.15 million on an unadjusted basis for the week ended January 9. On a seasonally adjusted basis claims rose to 965,000, an increase of 181,000 in the week. Add 284,000 new claims filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, an emergency federal program for freelancers, part-time workers and others normally ineligible for state jobless benefits. It was the first week since July in which the unadjusted number of new state claims exceeded one million.
December 17, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
For the week ended December 12, the number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs rose on a seasonally adjusted basis to 885,000, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week. That was the largest gain in the last three months. A Bloomberg survey of economists had projected 818,000 initial state claims and 5.7 million continuing claims on an adjusted basis.
December 16, 2020 | Daily JAM |
Tomorrow’s report from the Labor Department will show 815,000 American workers filed initial claims for unemployment in the week ended December 12, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be an improvement from the 850,000 new claims filed in the prior week but it would extend the break of a seven-week stretch where new claims stayed under 800,000
December 4, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Th Standard & Poor’s 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite all hit all time closing highs today. It’s enough to make you doubt that the U.S. economy added only 245,000 jobs in November. This was a huge miss on projections from economists the the economy would add 450,000 jobs. That projection would have itself been bad news since it would have confirmed trends that show the economic recovery losing momentum under the impact of the current surge in coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. November was the slowest month for job growth since the pandemic shut down the economy in the spring.
November 24, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
Is this as good as it gets? That’s an important question today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes up 1.54% to 30,045.84, the first close above 30,000 ever. Other indexes were just as strong. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.62% by the close. The NASDAQ Composite was up 1.31% and the NASDAQ 100 was ahead 1.46% at the end of the session. The Russell 2000 small cap index ended the day ahead 1.78%. It’s not hard to see why stocks and investors are so ebullient: There’s just so much good news.
November 23, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Saying on Sunday that the coronavirus surge in Nevada is running at wildfire levels, Governor Steve Sislak announced new restrictions to start on Tuesday and that will run for three weeks. The new rules will require casinos, amusement and theme parks, arcades, bars, and restaurants to reduce their capacity to 25% from the current 50%. What I think is most interesting to investors, though, is the reaction of stocks with Las Vegas exposure to the news.
November 18, 2020 | Morning Briefing |
At 1 p.m. today, November 18, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.05% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 0.06%. Supporting even these meagre gains was positive news from Pfizer that it had concluded trials of its coronavirus vaccine and would be submitting an application for an Emergency Use Authorization to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration within a few days. By the close of the day’s session, however, news of a continuing rise tide of infections and announcements of more closings around the country had extinguished most of the earlier upward momentum.
November 12, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Congressional Democrats, claiming that the November election was a referendum on the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus epidemic, are sticking to their demands for a big stimulus package, something like the $2.4 trillion plan they proposed before the...
November 12, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
New claims for unemployment in regular state-run programs fell to an adjusted 709,000 in the week en... To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing...
November 3, 2020 | Daily JAM |
As of today, November 3 at 12:30 p.m., I don't know who will win the Presidential election. I don't know if the rally in the stock market today, with the Standard & Poor's 500 up 2.02% at 12:30 p.m. New York time, is a vote for some specific outcome, or (more...
October 15, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The number of new unemployment claims in regular state-run programs rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 898,000. That's up 50,000 for the prior week and the biggest increase in first-time unemployment claims since August. The economy has clearly stalled with new...
