July 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend |
The dollar is likely to get another boost from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank this week. On Thursday, the European Central Bank is likely to report its first interest-rate increase in more than a decade. But the increase is likely to be just 25 basis points. That will be a stark reminder of how far behind the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates 75 basis points in June and is expected to increase rates by another 75 basis points at its July 27 meeting. On Thursday the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark interest rates at its current low, low, low level.
February 3, 2022 | Daily JAM |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 7 basis points to 1.84% today, February 3. The move was in concert to higher yields on United Kingdom and German bonds after the Bank if England and the European Central Bank signaled worry about rising inflation at the central banks meetings. The key move was the rise in the yield on the German 10-year Bund. The yield on that maturity had been below 0% until hi week when it jumped to a positive 0.15%.
March 12, 2020 | Daily JAM |
One of my favorite descriptions in logic is "Necessary but not sufficient." Which is a pretty good description of reason that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank didn't stop stocks from moving deeper into a bear market on Thursday despite huge and...
September 12, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
If it had come to a formal vote, there's a good chance that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would have faced defeat in his efforts to revive quantitative easing at the central bank. But the bank doesn't usually hold a formal vote on a issue like this and...
September 9, 2019 | Daily JAM |
Will the European Central Bank revive its program of bond-buying when it meets on Thursday? The bank only ended this program of quantitative easing in December. The markets are currently pricing in a new program of 40 billion euros a month in bond purchases--plus a...
August 16, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
We've seen this play before: Financial markets start to tumble and central banks step in--not with actual stimulus quite yet but certainly with talk of stimulus. The European Central Bank and the German government took a turn today. Germany's Der Spiegel magazine...
July 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Christine Lagarde will move from heading the International Monetary Fund to take over the helm at the European Central Bank from outgoing President Mario Draghi. I think this is a generally positive piece of news. First, putting Lagarde in the chair means that...
February 1, 2019 | Daily JAM |
Once upon a time--as late as 2018--the consensus thinking in financial markets was that the Federal Reserve was but the first central bank to raise interest rates. Other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, (but not the Bank of Japan, which may never...
November 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On December 13 the European Central Bank will decide whether to cap its $2.9 trillion program of bond buying as planned. The bank had decided that Europe's economy was strong enough for the central bank to wind down its purchases of bonds that have kept interest rates...
June 14, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
At today's meeting, the European Central Bank agreed to phase out its bond buying by the end of 2018 with purchases of $17.7 billion (15 billion euros) in each of the final three months of the year. (Bond buying will continue at the current rate of 30 billion euros a...
June 12, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un produced nothing of import, apparently meeting financial market expectations for "much ado about nothing," and all eyes on Wall Street have shifted to what I'm calling Central Bank...
February 27, 2018 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
In the short-term, if bond traders and investors flee the euro and European bonds and pile into U.S. Treasuries, Treasury prices will up and yields go down despite any pick up in U.S. inflation. That would confound bond bears betting on falling prices and rising yields. So what are the odds of such a flight to the safety of U.S. Treasuries?
