February 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fifth YouTube video “Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases” went up today. So how will the seemingly imminent confrontation between the United States and Russia over the fate of Ukraine, and the likelihood of continuing economic sanctions against Russia change the prospects for interest rate increases by the Fed in the coming months. Ya think that the prospect of sanctions on Russia and possible Russian cyberattacks might change the Fed’s schedule?
February 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
Yes, interest rates and the Federal Reserve and the Ukraine/Russia conflict are likely to dominate stock market direction this week, but don’t forget the power of the Iran/United States nuclear talks to move oil prices or the power of moves by Chinese regulators to wipe billions off the value of the country’s Internet stocks
February 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start raising interest rates soon and were on alert for persistent inflation that would justify a faster pace of tightening. Since then, CPI inflation has jumped to an annual 7.5% in January and employers have added almost 500,000 new jobs. The markets have no doubt that the Fed will raise interest rates at its March 16 meeting and has strongly moved to favor a 50 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate rather than the traditional 25 basis point move. The financial markets now price in 150 basis points of interest rate increases in 2022
February 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
This could lead the Federal Reserve to move more cautiously on raising interest rates, say, a 25 basis point increase rather than 50 at the central bank’s March 16 meeting. If, that is, you think any piece data is likely to change the Fed’s mind. U.S. consumers lowered their expectations for future inflation in January, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The median expectation for inflation one year from now fell in this survey for the first time since October 2020, to 5.8% from the 7.5% current inflation rate.
February 13, 2022 | Daily JAM |
Inflation fears and projections of interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve continue to run amuck. It’s important to remember that the financial markets tend to over shoot on both the upside and the downside. And right now, boy, are they in overshoot mode.
February 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-ninth YouTube video “50 basis points because the Fed is scared not to” went up today.
February 9, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Tomorrow, January 10, before the market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index inflation for January. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting an annualized increase of 7.2% in inflation. That would be a significant increase from the 7% CPI inflation rate in December and the highest inflation reading since 1982.
February 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
America’s gross national debt topped $30 trillion for the first time last week. In January 2020, before the pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the gross national debt would reach $30 trillion by around the end of 2025. The question to me isn’t “Does this matter?” But “In what way does this matter?”
February 5, 2022 | Daily JAM |
The big excitement for earnings season is over. Lots of companies will report this coming week but no reports that will move markets like Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook.In the absence off earnings excitement, financial markets will have plenty of time to fret about the March 16 Federal Reserve meeting and the likelihood that the central bank will raise niters rates.
February 4, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs.
February 3, 2022 | Daily JAM |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 7 basis points to 1.84% today, February 3. The move was in concert to higher yields on United Kingdom and German bonds after the Bank if England and the European Central Bank signaled worry about rising inflation at the central banks meetings. The key move was the rise in the yield on the German 10-year Bund. The yield on that maturity had been below 0% until hi week when it jumped to a positive 0.15%.
February 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I’m a big fan of history. I study it. I love reading it. I find the patterns of the past fascinating. Both in themselves and for what they tell us about our own time and the likely future. But…I just don’t think stock market history is a very reliable guide to the present and the near-term future right now.
