Fed keeps interest rates steady; Treasury yields and dollar slip slightly
As expected the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5% to 1.75% today. The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials pointed to no change in interest rates through 2020. “Our economic outlook remains a favorable one despite global...
The dangers in a highly correlated market
Measures of volatility such as the VIX "fear index," the ratio of the implied volatility of S&P 500 put and call options, and the demand in the options market for protection against low-probability events, all say that investors and traders believe this is a...
Inflation isn’t exactly dead
Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning...
It’s getting to look a lot like end of the year volatility
Remember how back in September a spike in very short term overnight rates in the repo market kicked off volatility across the financial markets until the Federal reserve flooded that market with liquidity? Well, signs are that we could see the kind of spike in...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
... central bank week. The Federal Reserve announces changes to U.S. benchmark interest rates on Wednesday, December 11. The central bank is expected to keep rates at current levels. The European Central Bank meets a day later, on Thursday, December 12. It too is...Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning's testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. “We see the current stance of...
The Fed interest rate pause that …
Distresses? Refreshes? Isn't important? Today, as expected the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The Fed lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. At the same time the Fed signaled that it would...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
... that news on a U.S.-China trade agreement will still be a big mover from stocks, but it will have to share top-of-mind space this week with the Wednesday, October 30, meeting of the Federal Reserve's interest rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. As far as...
Fed minutes from September show debate on how low interest rates should go
Here's the most important point, to me, from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting released today. At the meeting the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2019. “Several participants suggested that the committee’s...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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