Now Wall Street is talking about language. That isn’t a vote of confidence that OPEC will be able to agree on meaningful cuts to production at its November 30 meeting.
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to that post. Here are the six points that I forget to make yesterday. I’m posting them here separately and also folding them into last night’s post so that guide will be in not complete at least completer. The six items are China, Rudy Giuliani, Oil, Russia, Tax repatriation, and War.
The new weekly report from Baker Hughes showed the number of active rigs drilling for oil and natural gas in United States climbed again. The rig count report, released today, shows an increase of 14 rigs this week to 553. The bulk of the increase came in rigs drilling for oil, where the rig count climbed by 11 to 443.
Financial markets were hoping to hear something from the European Central Bank and its president Marie Draghi after today’s policy meeting about extending the bank’s current 80 billion euros ($88 billion) a month program of asset buying behind its current March 2017 expiration. Instead all financial markets heard was Draghi promise that the bank wouldn’t put an abrupt end to asset purchases in March
For me the question today was whether the market would look like the “vulnerable” market of the first four days of last week–you know when U.S. stocks moved lower, the dollar continued to climb but so did the yen, and emerging market equities fell and it looked like we were moving back to a typical risk-off market–or whether Friday’s strong day for U.S. stocks broke the pattern.
Yesterday, the Fed not only didn’t raise interest rates at its September meeting (a December increase gets odds of about 60%), but it also pointed toward interest rates rising more slowly in 2017 than projected in June. The Fed consensus now says two interest rate increases in 2017 rather than three. So the market got a present yesterday of lower rates for longer. Hence today’s rally
