Wait! today’s tariffs leave a long list of potential future tariffs
Here’s a list from the New York Times of what’s been proposed by the Trump Administration that’s still pending.
The Trump tariffs hit the fan
President Donald Trump’s deadline passed without a deal and today 25% tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products–which brought the total tax on some Chinese products to 45%–went into effect. Retaliation by China and Canada was swift–Mexico opted to wait until Sunday to respond. China imposed tariffs of up to 15 percent on a raft of U.S. farm products–including soybeans, pork and chicken, and grains. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed to fight and win a trade war with the United States.Canada will impose tariffs on roughly $107 billion worth of U.S. products. About $21 billion worth of those goods would be hit immediately, he said, with the rest taking effect in 21 days. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that her government was prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs. She told reporters that she will announce them Sunday.
Selling Chinese electric car maker BYD out of Jubak Picks tomorrow
I don’t see any way the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and the now almost certain global trade war will mean anything good for BYD (BYDDF) the leading global maker of electric and hybrid cars And apparently the stock market agreed. Today’ March 3, shares of BYD dropped 11.05% in New York trading as President Donald Trump confirmed that higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China would go into effect tomorrow March 4. So I will be selling shares of BYD out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow. March 4. The position was up 54% since I initiated it on December 28, 2023.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
I see the beginning of two weeks of extraordinary volatility. Look what’s on deck.
Either maximum pressure on China or a guarantee of big retaliation
Interesting timing. President Donald Trump has announced a second round of 10% tariffs on Beijing’s exports to the United States will go into effect on March 4. That’s just one day before President Xi Jinping heads into the party’s biggest political meeting of this year, the National People’s Congress, where his lieutenants will unveil their economic blueprint for 2025. While the tariffs are unlikely to sway the growth target or fiscal policy for the year, which have been set for months, they could lead to an escalation of rhetoric as President Xi demonstrates his resolve to stand up to the United States. And an acceleration of retaliation by China.
Mexico could buy its way out of higher tariffs–by joining the Trump trade war on China
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Mexico has proposed matching Washington’s tariffs on China and urged Canada to do the same. A new additional 10% tariff on Chinese exports to the United States is scheduled to go into effect on March 4. It’s possible, Bessent said on Bloomberg TV, that Mexico could avoid higher tariffs on exports to the United States scheduled to go into effect on March 4 if it imposed a 10% additional tariff on Chinese goods to match the proposed U.S. increase. Bessent suggested that Canada should make a similar offer.
Trump clarifies tariff dates, but the market is still betting on another delay
After sowing confusion with remarks at Wednesday’s cabinet meeting that seemed to postpone new, higher tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China to April, today President Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are on track to go into place on March 4, and said he would impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports.
Copper looks like new Trump tariff target
President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation of copper imports in what is a first step toward potential tariffs on the metal. The move launches a process that Trump previously used to put tariffs on steel and aluminium, opening a new front in his trade war. We’re at the early stages in this effort but I think a copper tariff play is a reasonable buy right now–especially since coopper demand and copper prices are forecast to climb tariffs or no tariffs. The biggest winner would be Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the largest producer of copper in the United States. I’ll adding shares of Freeport my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow, Thursday, February 27.
Lots of tariff talk but not much clarity
President Donald Trump said tariffs scheduled to hit Canada and Mexico next month were “on time” and “moving along very rapidly” following an initial delay. But following the remarks, a U.S. official, who spoke to Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity, said the fate of the special 25% levy on Canada and Mexico was still to be determined.
Will Apple be able to dodge Trump’s China tariffs again with promise of $500 billion U.S. investment?
In the first Trump Administration Apple (AAPL) avoided tariffs on its smartphones and on its Apple Watch made in China. This time around Apple may avoid the administration’s tariffs again, but the cost is a promise to spend $500 billion and hire 20,000 people in the United States over the next four years, and open a factory in Texas to make the machines that power the company’s push into artificial intelligence.
Saturday Night Quarterback (Part 2) says, For the week ahead expect…
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric–due Friday–is expected to cool to the slowest pace since June. But while I think markets will cheer, it’s too soon to look for any change from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts. That will have to wait until April at least the the central bank will get a better idea of exactly what tariffs President Donald Trump will increase and by how much.
Are they real or more vapor-tariffs?
Semiconductor chips and drugs are set to face higher duties, Trump told reporters at a news conference on Tuesday.“It’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over the course of a year.” Asked if he had decided the rate of a threatened tariff on cars from overseas, Trump said he would “probably” announce that on 2 April, “but it’ll be in the neighborhood of 25%”. But are these “announcement’s real?
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