After threatening to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, President Donald Trump “back-tracked” and said he would not double those tariffs, but instead 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum would take effect on Canada and other nations on Wednesday, March 12.
So first stocks sold off after President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Then stocks rallied when the White House said tariffs on auto imports from Mexico and Canada would be postponed by a month. Today, the tariff news is that higher duties on agricultural products imported from Mexico would be postponed fora month. But at the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down 1.58% and the NASDAQ Composite was off 2.11%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, the VIX “fear index,” was up 15.27% to 25.27. There was so much going on in the financial markets today that it’s impossible to say how much of today’s decline was due to a growing realization that delays of a month are essentially insufficient to reorder supply chains constructed by years or decades of investment.
President Donald Trump is exempting automakers from newly imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month, the White House said Wednesday, after pleas from U.S. automakers who have spent years building supply chains that stretch across international borders.
Two examples I’ve seen today suggest that consumers will feel the pain very soon.
Here’s a list from the New York Times of what’s been proposed by the Trump Administration that’s still pending.
President Donald Trump’s deadline passed without a deal and today 25% tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products–which brought the total tax on some Chinese products to 45%–went into effect. Retaliation by China and Canada was swift–Mexico opted to wait until Sunday to respond. China imposed tariffs of up to 15 percent on a raft of U.S. farm products–including soybeans, pork and chicken, and grains. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed to fight and win a trade war with the United States.Canada will impose tariffs on roughly $107 billion worth of U.S. products. About $21 billion worth of those goods would be hit immediately, he said, with the rest taking effect in 21 days. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that her government was prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs. She told reporters that she will announce them Sunday.
I don’t see any way the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and the now almost certain global trade war will mean anything good for BYD (BYDDF) the leading global maker of electric and hybrid cars And apparently the stock market agreed. Today’ March 3, shares of BYD dropped 11.05% in New York trading as President Donald Trump confirmed that higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China would go into effect tomorrow March 4. So I will be selling shares of BYD out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow. March 4. The position was up 54% since I initiated it on December 28, 2023.
I see the beginning of two weeks of extraordinary volatility. Look what’s on deck.
Interesting timing. President Donald Trump has announced a second round of 10% tariffs on Beijing’s exports to the United States will go into effect on March 4. That’s just one day before President Xi Jinping heads into the party’s biggest political meeting of this year, the National People’s Congress, where his lieutenants will unveil their economic blueprint for 2025. While the tariffs are unlikely to sway the growth target or fiscal policy for the year, which have been set for months, they could lead to an escalation of rhetoric as President Xi demonstrates his resolve to stand up to the United States. And an acceleration of retaliation by China.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Mexico has proposed matching Washington’s tariffs on China and urged Canada to do the same. A new additional 10% tariff on Chinese exports to the United States is scheduled to go into effect on March 4. It’s possible, Bessent said on Bloomberg TV, that Mexico could avoid higher tariffs on exports to the United States scheduled to go into effect on March 4 if it imposed a 10% additional tariff on Chinese goods to match the proposed U.S. increase. Bessent suggested that Canada should make a similar offer.
After sowing confusion with remarks at Wednesday’s cabinet meeting that seemed to postpone new, higher tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China to April, today President Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are on track to go into place on March 4, and said he would impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports.
President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation of copper imports in what is a first step toward potential tariffs on the metal. The move launches a process that Trump previously used to put tariffs on steel and aluminium, opening a new front in his trade war. We’re at the early stages in this effort but I think a copper tariff play is a reasonable buy right now–especially since coopper demand and copper prices are forecast to climb tariffs or no tariffs. The biggest winner would be Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the largest producer of copper in the United States. I’ll adding shares of Freeport my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow, Thursday, February 27.
