Rational self-interest argues for a successful conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks in the long run; in the short run it argues that the talks will fall apart first
It is clearly in the self interest of both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach an agreement that would bring the U.S.-China trade war to an end. In the long-run. That same calculus, however, argues that in the short run both leaders will let the...
What the market fears is what it doesn’t know about the U.S.-China trade wars
The Standard & Poor's 500 fell another 1.65% to 2,884.05 today on fears that there would be no agreement this week out of the U.S.-China trade talks and that President Donald Trump's threats to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese exports to the United States...
How serious is this morning’s stock sell off?
Here's what's disconcerting about this morning's stock market drop. First, while we do know what caused the selloff--President Donald Trump's Sunday tweet threatening China with higher tariffs on even more exports unless it agreed to a trade deal in the next few...Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
...consternation at President Donald Trump's Sunday tweet that he will raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese exports to 25% from 10% on Friday and add $325 billion in new Chinese goods that will face the higher 25% tariffs. The 25% rate was most recently scheduled...
Trick or trend: Crucial pivot point approaches for U.S.manufacturing
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Sunday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. This week's...
Confusion about state of trade talks with China takes a bit of froth off stocks
So are talks going well, as U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are claiming? Mnuchin has sad that a deal could be announced within the next two week. Or have talks hit an impasse as such official Chinese government media outlets as The Global...
Politburo throws some cold water on Chinese stocks
On Friday China's ruling body, the Politburo, suggested that it thought less stimulus might be needed since the economy had recovered its footing. Instead policy should focus on deleveraging China's banks and corporate balance sheets, and on avoiding speculation in...
Now it’s the European Union on the trade war front lines
Just in case you were worried that global trade wars were in any danger of calming down, today you can relax. Trade hostilities with the European Union are heating up. On Monday the Trump administration said it would impose tariffs on $11 billion in imports from the...
Trick or Trend: Real progress in U.S.-China trade talks?
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. We've heard...After sliding to April, has Trump-Xi trade meeting slipped to June?
Over the weekend the South China Morning News reported that the proposed meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement ending the U.S.-China trade war may now be pushed back to June. That meeting had originally been scheduled for...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
Trade. Trade. Trade. Trade will dominate the headlines and set the direction for U.S. and Chinese stocks. Stocks rose last week on any rumor of movement in the U.S.-China trade talks. Friday's rally, for example, was build on optimism generated by news that U.S. and...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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