Durables disappoint for February; confirm economy’s slow growth path
Not terrible news from today's report on durables. But nothing especially good either. New orders for durable goods fell 1.6% in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a 0.9% decline. The big damage was done by a 4.8% drop in transportation...
This week starts with reversal of last week’s pessimism on global growth
Remember last week when bond prices soared and yields plunged as everybody yelled "Recession" and fled to safety? Well, this week has started with a reversal of that sentiment on: A tick higher in manufacturing prospects in China. The official Manufacturing Purchasing...
Slow happens: Fourth quarter GDP growth gets a trim
On the one hand, the revision that takes fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth down to 2.2% from a previous estimate of 2.6% feeds right into financial market fears about a slowing economy and a looming recession. On the other hand, it looks like the financial markets...Has the Fed panicked? Should investors?
Let's remind ourselves of exactly how big a policy u-turn the Federal Reserve has steered in the last three months. In December the Fed was looking at 2 interest rate increases in 2019 and an announcement of an end to its balance sheet run off by, maybe, September. In...
Is the Fed on hold of all of 2019? Market and economists differ ahead of Wednesday meeting
According to a Bloomberg survey of 32 economists, the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September. Then it will raise interest rates one final time. And that will bring an end of the recent cycle of interest rate increases. The financial markets beg to differ....
January retail sales better than expected; December gets revised lower yet
Headline retail sales rose 0.2% in January, the Census Bureau reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting a 0.1% drop for the month. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.9% for the month against a consensus projection of a 0.2% gain. Motor...
Shockingly low February jobs report this morning–but what’s the trend.
The U.S. economy added only 20,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 173,000 jobs for the month. In January the economy added 304,000 jobs. The huge swing left economists and Wall Street...
Mostly good news on the U.S. economy even in ISM manufacturing slip today
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing fell to 54.2 in February from 56.6 in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 56 on the index. (On this index anything above 50 signals expansion in the sector; below...
Wal-Mart’s earnings report reassures stocks
Remember last week when the Commerce Department released figures showing that U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in December from the previous month, the most since 2009. The drop was so big that she Wall Street analysts argued that the data were in error. Today Wal-Mart...
Markets talk themselves out of belief in brutal retail numbers
Overall retail sales fell 1.2% in December from November, according to the Commerce Department. That's the worst drop in nine years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 0.1% gain in retail sales. Out of the gate stocks fell today on the news with the...
Delinquent auto loans rise to highest level since March 2012
Those of us trying to figure out not whether the U.S. economy is slowing but how big the slowdown will be are latching on to any data point. This one seems more important than many: Auto loans delinquent more than 90 days rose to 4.47% of total loans in the fourth...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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