January 30, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Today the financial markets are in love with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise rates no more than once in 2019--and more likely zero. And that the central bank will re-examine its policy of letting its balance sheet run off to the tune of $50 billion a...
January 16, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Yesterday, President Donald Trump' economic advisers more than doubled their estimate of the damage to the U.S. economy by the shutdown of parts of the U.S. government affecting some 800,000 federal workers. The Council of Economic Advisers now calculates the shutdown...
January 14, 2019 | Daily JAM |
This morning Citigroup (C) kicked off earnings season for the big banks and stocks in general with a report that first, argued that the banking sector hasn't fixed its big problem--no toppling revenue growth--and, second, that those traders and investors who are leery...
January 11, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday  this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Economists...
January 7, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
U.S. stocks moved toward a key test on Monday with the Standard & Poor's 500 approaching the 2550 to 2600 level that signals the top of the recent volatility range and likely technical resistance. If the index breaks above this level, the market could run higher...
January 3, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Last night's warning from Apple that sales for the December quarter would be well below the company's earlier guidance bled into a weaker than expected reading this morning  from the Purchasing Managers Index for the Manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing Index...
December 13, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are expecting the 8:30 a.m. New York time report on November retail sales to show month to month growth of 0.2%. That wouldn't be quite so likely to disappoint the market except that retail sales climbed 0.8% month to month in...
December 7, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
This morning the November jobs report came in softer than expected--and that pretty much removed the last factor pushing the Federal Reserve toward aggressively raising interest rates in 2019. For November the economy added 155,000 jobs. That is still a strong...
November 29, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yesterday, Wednesday November 28, U.S. stocks saw a huge bounce with the Standard & Poor's 500 climbing 2.3% on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman "suggesting" that the Fed might slow the speed and limit the number of interest rate increases in 2019. Today,...
October 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Real GDP (that is GDP discounting any gains from inflation) increased at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 3.3% growth rate. In the second quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.2%. Big driver in...
October 11, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
A Big Bad Wolf market? A Sauron market? An Evil Stepmother market? The reaction to this morning's inflation report suggests me might need a name for this kind of market. The worry, my worry, going into today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report from the...
October 9, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Just what we need: More worries about global growth. Last night the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 2019. In its last forecast three months ago the IMF had projected that the global economy would grow...
