My “best-estimate” scenario for the U.S. stock market for the next 60 days
Let's start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the markets...
4.1% GDP growth isn’t enough to make stock market happy
U.S. GDP (in real terms) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter. The economy hasn't seen 4% growth in the memory of most Wall Street analysts (who do, I admit, have short memories), but it still wasn't enough. Economists had been...
Will 2nd quarter GDP report on Friday deliver convincing “good as it gets” message?
Wall Street and economists and the Trump administration and investors are expecting big good news in Friday's first report of second quarter GDP growth. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com projected 4.1% year over year growth for the quarter that ended in June. It's...
Is a dip in home sales a “canary in a coal mine” for economy?
Existing home sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million. The consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com called for an annual rate of 5.45 million units. The May sales rate was revised down to a 5.41 million...
Fed chief’s Senate talk calms markets after Netflix guidance disappointment
In his semiannual Senate testimony on the state of the U.S. economy this morning Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave the U.S. economy a strong thumbs up--at least if the tariff war doesn't hit the global economy too badly. (Powell completed his testimony tomorrow...
Fed minutes from June meeting add dash of uncertainty to positive outlook
A slightly larger dash of uncertainty flavored the Federal Reserve's minutes from the June 12 to 13 meeting of the Open Market Committee. But since this is the same uncertainty that's been troubling the market in recent weeks, the minutes didn't have a huge effect on...
Heady expectations for 4% second quarter GDP growth make lower first quarter revision irrelevant
The third revision for first quarter GDP, announced this morning, continued the pattern of lower growth with each update. The third revision showed annual GDP growth in the first quarter slowing to 2.0% from a prior 2.2%. Financial markets ordinarily don't care much...
U.S. economy adds 223,000 jobs in May; odds of June interest rate increase bounce back
The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in May, well ahead of the 190,000 gain expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com Revised figures for April showed the economy adding slightly fewer jobs, a revised 159,000 new jobs versus an initial 164,000. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in May from 3.9% in April, matching a 18-year low.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
The is a week with plenty of potential economic trends–although none is so strong that geopolitics couldn’t seize control of the world’s financial markets
Trick or Trend: NAFTA? Remember NAFTA? The deadline for negotiating a new deal nears
I know it’s hard to pay attention to NAFTA while we’re anticipating President Donald Trump’s sit down with North Korea’s President Kim and pondering the effects of the President’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal, but the talks to negotiate a new deal with Mexico and Canada on NAFTA are getting very, very close to a deadline. Â And it looks like there won’t be an agreement in time for Congress to vote. No one, however, is quite sure what that would mean.
Consumer sentiment stays strong–with a few worrisome wrinkles
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showed the index holding steady with the final reading for April of 98.8. That means the index remains near a 14-year high. A good thing, I’d say.n But there was some slippage that suggests keeping a close watch on the index and the economy–and especially on inflation expectations.
