Markets rediscover risk–for a day anyway

Markets rediscover risk–for a day anyway

This morning it looks like the combination of turmoil in Washington and some weak economic data have led traders and investors to take money out of risk assets and put money into safe havens. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was off 1.11% and the NASDAQ Composite, which has led this market higher, was down 1.6%. The German DAX Index was off 1.3% and the French CAC 40 Index fell 1.69%.

Was market action today, May 11, reassuring or scary?

Was market action today, May 11, reassuring or scary?

This, Thursday, May 11, was one of those “half full” or “half empty” days. U.S. indexes finished the day largely unchanged. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was off 0.22% to 2394.44. The NASDAQ Composite slid the same 0.22%. And the Russell 2000 small company index was off 0.66%. That the indexes finished the day roughly unchanged would have been a huge surprise to anyone who had only checked in during the morning hours.

This is one odd market: How odd? Look at the SKEW

This is one odd market: How odd? Look at the SKEW

On one level the U.S. stock market makes perfect sense. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is up 6.64% for 2017 and as you’d expect volatility has tumbled with the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index down 22.72% for the year. But another volatility index the CBOE SKEW Index is up 7.5% for 2017. How can two volatility indexes be giving such different pictures of the level of fear, nervousness, and expected volatility in the S&P 500?

We’ve moved to a risk-off market–for how long?

We’ve moved to a risk-off market–for how long?

It’s a classic risk off market today as of 4 p.m. New York time. All the safe havens are up. The yen is ahead 1.2% to 109.65 to the dollar, breaching the 110 level for the first time since November. Gold is 1.73% higher to $1275.60 an ounce. The 10-year U.S. Treasury is up and the yield is down to 2.30%. And riskier asset classes are down. Modestly.