With the U.S. financial markets closed for Presidents’ Day and with markets in China and Hong Kong still closed for the Lunar New Year, it’s a slow news day for stocks and bonds today. But get ready for the action to resume on Tuesday with much of the attention focused on the U.S. Treasury market.
There’s an especially heavy schedule of speeches from the Federal Reserve this week–with U.S. stock markets hanging on every word. With the next Fed meeting scheduled for March 21–and with everyone expecting an interest rate increase from the U.S. central bank–this week is one of the Fed’s last big chances to direct expectations before the Fed’s March 21 meeting. The Fed’s quiet period begins the second Saturday before a meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee so the “no public comments” period for this meeting begins on March 10.
Before this market rout and from the safety of the World Economic Forum in Davos, hedge fund legend Ray Dalio talked about the coming bear market in bonds and likelihood that we were near the end of this cycle of economic boom. Sometime in the next two years, he remarked, we were likely to experience a recession and that would put an end to one of the longest periods of economic growth in the United States. With the experience of the big market rout of January 26 through February 8 behind us–if it indeed is–when the Standard & Poor 500 stock index fell 9.03%, I’d like to make Dalio’s comments a little more explicit and apply them more directly to the stock market.
As of yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has climbed 5.8% in the last five trading sessions. That recouped much of the 9.03% drop (not quite an official correction of 10% or more) from January 26 through Februry 8. Which, of course, raises the question of what lies ahead–A rapid climb back through the old high of 2872.87 to new records (a classic V-recovery) or a move back to near the old high, followed by a failure at that level and a deeper correction of, say, 15%?
We’ve had a big influx of new readers here at JubakAM.com thanks to the magic of groundhogs and our Groundhog Day 20% off deal. And I’ve received a number of questions that boil down to How do I get started using the five portfolios on the site? Here’s my advice.
No index here with the headline clout of yesterday’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) but the message from three indexes today reinforces the story in yesterday’s CPI data: inflation pressures are increasing. The Empire State Manufacturing prices-paid index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York climbed 12.4 points to 48.6 in February. That’s the highest level since 2012.
It’s not the most high-profile or best followed report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, but if you’re looking to see where in the energy sector to put your dollars, the monthly Drilling Productivity Report is a good place to start. That’s because the report projects the trends in production per well in U.S. oil shale geologies and the growth in the number of working wells.
In the deal announced today Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) pays Nektar Therapeutics $1 billion upfront, $850 million for stock valued at a price of $102 a share, and a potential $1.78 billlion in milestone payments in exchange for access to NKTR 214, a drug candidate still in trials and that has shown the ability to extend the range of Bristol-Myers Opdivo
Headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation climbed 0.5% in January, the Labor Department announced today. That was above the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.3% in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a 0.2% increase.
Investors and traders don’t have just the volatility from the CPI inflation report tomorrow to worry about. An unexpectedly strong or weak inflation report could send stocks and bonds soaring or tumbling. There’s also the expiration of options on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) tomorrow.
Today Goldman Sachs projected that the yield on the Treasury 10-year note will climb as high as 3.5% in the next six months. In addition, the Wall Street giant told Bloomberg, the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates four times in 2018. The yield on the 10-year Treasury finished at 2.85% yesterday after trading as high as 2.89%, a four-year high.
