Daily JAM

Drill baby, drill pledge sends oil prices down today

Drill baby, drill pledge sends oil prices down today

Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.

Mortgage rates top 7%

Mortgage rates top 7%

Mortgage rates rose this week to the highest level since May 2024. The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.04% through Wednesday, January 15, up from 6.93% a week earlier. Average 15-year mortgage rates also rose to 6.27% from 6.14%, according to Freddie Mac It’s the fifth straight week that mortgage rates have moved higher.

Big market reaction on a tiny move in CPI inflation

Big market reaction on a tiny move in CPI inflation

As of noon New York time today, January 15, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was ahead 1.30%. The NASDAQ Composite and the small-cap Russell 2000 were both up 1.80% on the session. Today’s big moves come on relatively minor changes in inflation trends in this morning’s report on CPI inflation in December. And I think they have more to do with how afraid Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve isn’t going to deliver at least one or two interest rate cuts in 2025 than with any big news in today’s report. The consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, up from a 2.7% annual rate the previous month. That increase was in line with expectations. On a month-to-month basis, the index rose 0.4%. The “core” index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is much more important to the Fed than the headline inflation number, rose at a 3.2% annual rate in December. That was down slightly from its annual rate of 3.3% in November, and less than economists had expected. It’s this dip in the annual rate of core inflation that has investors feeling so optimistic today.

More oil and lower oil prices into 2026

More oil and lower oil prices into 2026

Global oil markets will face a widening glut in 2026 as OPEC brings back production and output from the United States, Canada and Guyana continues to grow, the U.S. Energy Information Agency said today, Tuesday, January 14. Today’s forecast was the agency’s first for 2026. World oil markets are expected to average a surplus of 800,000 barrels a day in 2026, the Energy Information Administration. That’s more than twice as large as the 300,000 barrel a day surplus the agency projects for 2025.

China’s trade surplus hits $1 trillion just as Trump takes over trade policy

China’s trade surplus hits $1 trillion just as Trump takes over trade policy

On Monday, January 13, China announced that its trade surplus reached almost $1 trillion in 2024. China’s General Administration of Customs said the country exported $3.58 trillion worth of goods and services last year, while importing $2.59 trillion. The surplus of $990 billion broke China’s previous record, which was $838 billion in 2022. Strong exports in December, including some that may have been rushed to the United States before President Donald Trump can take office and raise tariffs, propelled China to a new single-month record surplus of $104.8 billion. When adjusted for inflation, China’s trade surplus last year far exceeded any in the world in the past century.

Apple’s fourth quarter iPhone stumble is bad news for stocks

Apple’s fourth quarter iPhone stumble is bad news for stocks

Apple (AAPL) sold 5% fewer iPhones globally and lost ground to Chinese rivals in the last quarter of 2024.
The iPhone slipped a percentage point to a 18% worldwide market share in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research data. rival Samsung Electronics also gave up share to Android smart phone makers from China, led by Xiaomi and Vivo. For the full year, Apple saw a 2% decline in sales, according to Counterpoint Research. In 2024 the global smart phone market grew by 4%.

Jobs surprise–economy delivers stronger than expected performance in December

Jobs surprise–economy delivers stronger than expected performance in December

In December U.S. economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. For 2024 as a whole, the economy added 2.2 million jobs—-below the 3 million increase in 2023 but above the 2 million created in 2019. The data almost certainly assured that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates at its January 29 meeting. As of 11 a.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 5 basis points to 4.74%.