Jubak Picks
August 26, 2022 | CORN, Daily JAM, DBA, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Pretty much everything got clobbered today after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell promised that the Fed would raise interest rates and keep them high until inflation is under control. In other words, no quick turn to cutting interest rates in the second half of 2023. So chip stocks were down today, August 26, with Nvidia (NVDA) plunging 9.23% at the close. Consumer stocks were down with Shake Shack (SHAK) tumbling 8.61%. Financial technology stocks were down with Block (SQ) shedding 7.72%. Climate change stocks, an extremely hot sector lately, were down with EVgo (EVGO) bleeding 7.86%. Hide in gold? No way. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) was down 1.22%. (Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, I suppose.) But agricultural commodity ETFs? Green in a sea of red.
August 25, 2022 | ALB, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Lithium producer Albemarle (ALB) closed up 2.71% today after hitting an all-time high of $298.17 in intraday trading. The shares closed at $295.68. The gains for Albemarle, and across the lithium sector, came as Goldman Sachs upgraded lithium battery maker Freyr Battery (FREY) on projected higher demand for lithium batteries after the Inflation Reduction Act. Albemarle is a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio where it is up 200.18% since my August 10, 2018 stock pick. The stock is also a member of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio where it is up 221.67% since February 17, 2017.
August 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, UNG, Volatility |
On Tuesday U.S. natural gas prices tumbled after the operators of the Freeport liquefied natural gas terminal said production will resume in early to mid-November instead of October as earlier announced. The terminal, which handles almost 20% of U.S. LNG exports, was knocked out of operation by an explosion in June. The trouble at Freeport has been an especially big deal for European LNG shipments since the United States sends almost 75% of its LNG to Europe and that market has been scrambling to replace natural gas from Russia after that country’s invasion of Ukraine. Natural gas futures dropped 6.5% on Tuesday after hitting $10 per million BTUs for the first time since 2008. Today, Wednesday, August 24, natural gas futures for September delivery are up 2.09% as of 1:30 p.m. New York time.
August 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, PANW |
After the close on Monday, August 22, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported fiscal fourth-quarter (adjusted) earnings of $2.39. a share. Analysts had projected $2.28 a share. Revenue climbed 27% to $1.6 billion. The company also announces a 3/1 stock split.
August 17, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, TCEHY, Volatility |
When I added Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on April 29, 2022, and Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) to my Volatility Portfolio on January 3, 2022, I thought two things were about to happen in China. First, I thought that the People’s Bank would unleash enough stimulus to more than compensate for the slowdown in China’s economy. And, second, I thought that we’d seen the end of the regulatory crackdown on China’s big entrepreneurial technology companies. I got both trends wrong.
August 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
If the return of the Bear Market is very likely, WHEN will it return? That’s important because the timing of the return of the Bear determines what strategy we should adopt. If the Bear will go back on the prowl very soon, say somewhere around August 24 (the date of Nvidia’s (NVDA) very important (for the tech sector and more) earnings report) and August 26 through 28, the dates of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole confab, then you should be battening down the hatches now and selling everything you don’t want to hold through another down leg from the Bear. On the other hand, the return of the Bear could be delayed until early 2023 when it becomes clear to all the interest rate optimists on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve isn’t about to start cutting rates soon. So what do you do?
August 10, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, DAL, Jubak Picks, MLM |
Despite today’s CPI inflation bounce and the continuation (flagging but still in business) of July’s Bear Market rally, my goal is still to sell into rallies. I don’t think this Bear Market is over and done with. I see another down leg when investors and traders admit that the Federal Reserve isn’t going to be able to get inflation under control with just another 100 basis points of interest rate increases (and, the other part of this hopeful scenario, to begin cutting interest rates by the middle of 2023.) So I’ll be making three sells today out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio to take advantage of the CPI bounce.
August 5, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PXD |
I’ve seen several comments on the site asking this question. I assume we’re talking about oil stocks in the short- and medium-term. In the long term, I think it’s clear that you should be thinking about selling these out of your portfolio at a profit (of course) whenever you can. Demand for oil will fall in the long-term–defining long-term as 5 years or more–or we can all count on figuring out how to survive 120-degree (Fahrenheit) heat. Today, August 5, is a good synopsis of what’s going on with oil and oil stocks in the short- and medium-term.
August 5, 2022 | CMI, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-sixty-fourth YouTube video “Quick Pick Cummins Part 3” went up today. I’m returning to my pick Cummins (CMI) because the company just released strong second-quarter earnings. What caught my eye is that besides not affirming guidance for the rest of 2022, the company reported growth in gross margins and operating margins at a time when many companies are feeling squeezed.
August 3, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PXD |
As of 2 p.m. New York time today, August 3, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude was down 3.30% to $91.30 a barrel. International benchmark Brent fell 3.07% to $97.45 a barrel.
The drop was a result of Wednesday data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that U.S. crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose last week. U.S. crude supplies were up 4.5 million barrels in the week ended July 29, while gasoline supplies rose 200,000 barrels. This comes at a time when gasoline inventories usually fall on high seasonal demand. This report was, for the day, more than enough to offset the announcement of a smaller than expected increase in oil production by OPEC+ of just 100,000 barrels a day for September.
July 28, 2022 | CMG, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
In yesterday’s YouTube video I explained that a recession works by peeling the sock market onion. With each step down in the economy, more stocks report negative surprises or issue negative guidance. Investors and traders sell those stocks–Snap (SNAP) for example fell 39% in the day–and buy the shares of companies that have, for the moment, shown the ability to dodge the economic bullet. (So Alphabet (GOOG) climbs 6.47% when it reports that advertising revenue hasn’t dipped as much as the Snap results threatened. But I pointed out, each time the recession peels away a layer of the stock market onion, it leaves fewer and fewer stocks on the “safe buy” side. And if the recession gets deep enough, many of these safe buys will wind up showing the same problems as earlier hit their sector peers. So tomorrow, Friday, July 29, I’ll be selling shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
July 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, VWDRY |
My fourth pick for my Special Report: Own the Future for Pennies with my 10 Best Penny Stock Picks is Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY). The Danish company has the largest installed capacity of wind turbines in service in the world. 2022 hasn’t been kind to Vestas.
