Chipotle to split 50-1 in June
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) said on Tuesday, March 19, that its board of directors had approved a 50-for-one split of its common stock.
Morning Briefing
Credit card delinquency rates keep rising
About 8.5% of credit card balances and 7.7% of auto loans moved into delinquency in the fourth quarter of 2023, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported last week. “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.” Total household debt increased by $212 billion last quarter to $17.5 trillion
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
There’s room for disappointment in Wednesday’s Dot Plot projections from the Federal Reserve. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were still expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three or more times in 2024 with the first cut coming in June. (To be more precise, the survey found that a majority expect three or more cuts in 2024 while more than a a third expect two or fewer cuts in 2024.) The survey was conducted from March 8 through March 13. Why do I highlight the dates?
Hotter than expected Wholesale Price Inflation adds to inflation/interest rate fears
It’s becoming a refrain. Today another inflation measure came in hotter than expected. Which is the problem. It’s har to ignore the possibility that inflation has stopped its steady decline and its recent months has started to move up again. Is there a problem here beyond a stickiness in prices that is preventing the Federal Reserve from reaching its inflation goals? And that might be endangering even a June timetable for an initial interest rate cut? Prices paid to U.S. producers rose in February by the most in six months.
Why next week’s Dot Plot from the Fed is more important than ever after a hot inflation report
There’s not much question of what the Federal Reserve will do at its March 20 meeting. The odds–99% on the CME Fed Watch Tool–are that the Fed will do nothing and leave interest rates at the current 5.25%-5.50% benchmark. But that day the Fed will also release its most recent quarterly revision of its economic projections for the year ahead, the Dot Plot. And those projections will have, potential, market moving power. The central question: Will the Fed hold to its projection of 2 interest rate cuts in 2024 or will the bank, worried by recent evidence that inflation has been stubbornly high in recent months, point toward just one cut by the end of the year?
Core CPI inflation disappoints again for February
Core CPI inflation came in hotter than expected in February for a second straight month. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.4% from January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The year over year inflation rate rose to 3.8%. Economists had been projecting 3.7% annual rate. Core CPI over the past three months rose an annualized 4.2%, the highest annual rate since June. That adds to worries that the improvement in inflation has stalled in recent months.
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead don’t expect…
A month after the stock market was rocked by a worse-than-expected inflation report, investors are fearing a reprise when the latest data arrives on Tuesday. Last Thursday stocks rallied when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his testimony before the Senate that the central bank is “not far” from being ready to cut interest rates. But this week Fed officials are in their regular blackout period ahead of their meeting on March 19 and 20. Absent Fed commentary on the inflation report, stocks may be volatile again.
Job adds surprisingly strong; unemployment rate climbs
Can we just agree that they way we measure the labor market is nuts? Today’s report on the U.S. economy is a case in point. Employers added 275,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported Friday. But the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7%.
Tesla to lose money in 2024? From Magnificent 7 to Market Dog in 3 months
Right now Tesla (TSLA) is a case study in how sentiment on a stock changes, how long it takes sentiment to change (and recover), and the stages of sentiment change. You understanding of this process should be our guide to whether you want to own Tesla and when. Tesla (TSLA) could potentially lose money in 2024, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas wrote in a note to investors this week. And he cut his Tesla earnings projections by 25% to $1.51 a share from a prior $2.04. Gross profit margins will fall to 11.4% (excluding regulatory credits that Tesla gets paid by automakers looking to meet EPA mileage and emissions rules.) And this is from a Tesla bull.
Another reason to buy Novo Nordisk: Kidney trial success for GLP
Back on February 20, I posted a video recommending a buy of Novo Nordisk (NVO). In the video, “Buy GLP-1,” I said that the stock, along with Eli Lilly (LLY) was riding the momentum of increased sales of GLP-1 drugs, originally developed to treat diabetes, as weight-loss drugs. Buy, I said, despite the huge run-up in the shares, because new trials and analysis of existing data were pointing to expanded uses for the drugs. Today, Novo Nordic announced exactly the kind of news that I had talked about.
Long-term investors! This is the most important trend to think about–the global savings glut is ending
Way back in 2005, shortly before he became chair of the Federal Reserve, economist Ben Bernanke proposed that the world was seeing a long-term glut of savings. With the world awash in cash as a result of massive numbers of people in the developing world entering the job market, and as the Baby Boom generation (and others) hit its peak earning years, and as relatively low inflation and rising real wages freed up more cash for many consumers, long-term interest rates would stay low and remain low for longer. The thesis looks, in retrospect, to have been massively correct. The global economy did experience a long period of extraordinarily low interest rates, with interest rates turning negative for important chunks of the the world. Now, it looks like the long-term trend has gone into reverse. We’re headed into a period of cash scarcity.
Ouch! There’s more to the credit crunch than interest rates as auto loan availability sinks
Access to auto credit declined in January as credit tightened across all channels and across most lender types compared to December, according to the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index. Investors who pay so much attention to interest rates to predict the trend in consumer spending need to spend more time on the other parts of the current credit crunch, the ability of loans. Consumers who can’t borrow can’t spend no matter how many times the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
