Morning Briefing
Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about...
Senate passes Hong Kong support bill, House to take it up today scrambling China trade talks
As you might imagine, this complicates things. Just as U.S. and Chinese negotiators struggle to put together a Part 1 deal to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, the two houses of the U.S. Congress are moving to pass legislation that would support pro-democracy...
Oil prices under pressure as OPEC meeting looms
Oil prices are down significantly today, November 19, on speculation that data to be released tomorrow will show a fourth straight weekly increase in U.S. oil inventories and nervousness about a successful conclusion to U.S.-China Part 1 trade talks. As of 1:30 p.m....Saudi Aramco cancels London IPO roadshow, cuts size of offer
The oil markets aren't amused today, November 18, at news that even at a reduced price investors are balking at buying shares of Saudi Aramco's initial public offering. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had initially set a goal for the sale of reaching a valuation $2...
White House again says China deal is near; Wall Street says show us the signatures
The White House rolled out another round of its ongoing soap opera "As the Deal Turns." starring, this week Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow (again.) The stock market yawned. “If you look at whenever they say ‘trade war is...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning's testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. “We see the current stance of...
Record Singles’ Day sales support growth optimism on China
By the time Taylor Swift closed down the festivities at midnight with the last of three songs, Alibaba (BABA) had recorded sales of $38.4 billion for the Singles' Day e-commerce shopping monster. This year's total beat out last year's record $30.8 billion in sales on...Tariff roll back or not? Markets certainly don’t know.
The uncertainty extends even to whether or not a Part 1 trade deal between the United States and China will even get signed in 2019. Yesterday, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said negotiators had “agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as...
Markets climb on Chinese statements promising tariff roll backs on signing of Part 1 deal
Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Geo Feng set off a rally in financial markets today by saying, “In the past two weeks, top negotiators had serious, constructive discussions and agreed to remove the additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement.”...
Failure to set Trump-Xi meeting place and date stalls market
It now looks likely that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign that Part 1 trade deal until December. The two sides still haven't set a date or a place. The Chinese have ruled out the first two U.S. suggestions of Iowa and Alaska and...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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