Morning Briefing
President’s remarks remind markets there’s still a trade war going on
At a cabinet meeting today President Donald Trump wanted to remind everyone that he could still impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports if he wants. The President also expressed impatience that the truce in the trade war with China hadn't yet resulted in a pickup...
China’s economy continues to slow in second quarter
Of course, we can't trust China's official GDP statistics. Government economists cook the books so that China's growth stays within the goals set by the country's leaders every year. But investors should pay attention to the trend. And this quarter the trend is...
China and Singapore show continued weakness in global economy
Trade analysts call Singapore's export-driven economy the canary in the coal mine for the global economy. In which case that canary is looking kind of wobbly lately. Singapore's GDP contracted at an annualized 3.4% rate in the second quarter. That's the biggest...
Powell sounds even more dovish on interest rates but market shrugs
In the second day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress--this time in front of the Senate--Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell sounded even more likely to support an interest rate cut at the central bank's July meeting. The Fed has room to cut rates, he said,...
July interest rate cut from Fed looks like done deal after Powell testimony
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell had an opportunity this morning to talk down the odds of an interest rate cut at the central bank's July 31 meeting in testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee. He didn't--and I think that makes a 25 basis point...
Well at least they didn’t lose the phone numbers–U.S. and China trade negotiators speak by phone
Still no schedule for a resumption of face-to-face trade talks more than 10 days since President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks the Osaka G20 meeting. But the two sides did talk by phone on Tuesday. No mention yet of a time table...
The U.S. could hit debt ceiling default earlier than expected
Today, the Bipartisan Policy Center said there is a “significant risk” that the U.S. will breach its debt limit in September unless Congress acts. The last time the independent think tank projected possible U.S. default the group pointed to October or November. The...
Stronger than expected jobs reports kills odds on a 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed on July 31
U.S. stocks initially sold off on this morning's stronger than expected jobs report for June. At 10:45 a.m. New York time the Standard & Poor's 500 was down 0.92%. The fear was that the addition of 224,000 jobs in June, well above the 160,000 forecast by...Now it’s the service sector showing weakness
In a report on Monday the Purchasing Managers' Index for the U.S. manufacturing sector slipped. For June the index moved down to 51.7 from 52.1 in May. That still signals expansion--anything over 50 denotes expansion, anything under 50 signals contraction--but...
82% of companies have cut earnings guidance for the second quarter–is this more than just the usual “set the bar” low?
The forecast from earnings observers such as FactSet is that second quarter earnings will show a 2.5% drop from last year. So what does the average, reasonably smart CEO do? He or she goes to the Wall Street playbook and cuts guidance so that when earnings are...
OPEC + Russia extend production cuts, oil prices tumble
A day after OPEC agreed on a deal to extend current production cuts until March 2020, Russia and nine other non-OPEC producers agree to a matching nine-month extension of supply cuts. In some oil markets, the news would have sparked a rally in oil prices. Less supply...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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