Short Term
December 19, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
It’s now not just that the MAGA wing of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives along with President-elect Donald Trump and who-elected-you co-president wanna be Elon Musk have killed the Continuing Resolution (CR) negotiated with Democrats by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. That bill would have kept the government’s doors open beyond Saturday’s funding deadline until March 14, 2025. There’s no way to put together a new package and pass it before funding for the government expires. These folks have also made it extremely likely that the shutdown will last for more than a few days. How?
December 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Late Tuesday House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced legislation to prevent a government shutdown this weekend by extending federal funding until March 14, sending $110.4 billion to natural disaster survivors, and codifying a miscellany of policy changes. But Republicans are preparing to scrap Johnson’s plan to avert a government shutdown.
December 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Today, December 18, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time.The Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.
December 17, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is U.S. Dollar. The dollar has been on a good run and is up 7% in the last three months, 2% in the last month. I expect this to continue with higher tariffs, and a Fed that will remain steady while other currencies are seeing more volatility. To get in on this you can buy an ETF like Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP), currently up 10.19% YTD with a 75 basis point expense ratio. Another option would be the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), up about 11% YTD with a 50 basis point expense ratio. WisdomTree buys Treasuries while Invesco uses futures but both are similarly sized ETFs and good ways to play the US dollar.
December 14, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
When the Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate move and it’s Dot Plot projections on future interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth, it will be the Dot Plot projections that matter to the financial markets.
December 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
U.S. consumer credit rose by $19.2 billion in October, smashing through the $10.1 billion consensus forecast. And surging from $3.2 billion in September, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. One in three Americans are stockpiling daily necessities like toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to add tariffs to imported goods will lead to higher prices, according to a new survey by CreditCards.com
November 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
I expect more temporizing this week on when to sell a market that everyone agrees is too expensive. It’s especially worthwhile checking on potential tax loss sells as we come out of a great 2024 and head into a much less predictable 2025.
November 19, 2024 | Daily JAM, GLD, GOLD, Morning Briefing, NEM, Short Term |
Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and U.S. interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank listed the metal among top commodity trades for 2025. “Go for gold,” analysts said in a note, reiterating a target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025.
November 11, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Look out for more volatility in the bond market. BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase. and TCW Group have all warned that the bumpy ride is likely far from over. But also expect that the big overall trend for 2024 of rising bond prices and falling yields on hopes for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is done.
October 31, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, fell to a 2.1% annual rate in September.
October 28, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
Right now the Magnificent 7 stocks that have provided so much of the leadership in this huge rally look like they will show slowing earnings growth when they–Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are up this week–report in the next few days.
October 22, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Two-year Treasury yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates on September 18 for the first time since 2020. Rising yields “reflect the reduced probability of recession risks,” Steven Zeng, an interest rate strategist at Deutsche Bank told Bloomberg. “Data has come in pretty strong. The Fed may slow the pace of rate cuts.” We’ve read this story before
