Short Term
March 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and twelfth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Central banks tighten faster than expected” went up today. This week I’m looking at tightening by central banks, including the Fed. I think that some of us expected that with the invasion of Ukraine, banks would pump the brakes on raising interest rates and reducing their stimulus. With its announcement last week that it would accelerate the reduction of bond buying, the European Central Bank sent the opposite signal, and that makes me think that the Fed will stay the course to raise rates as well when it reports this Wednesday. I look at the volatility in the treasury market and talk about some moves you can make to take advantage of changing and volatile yields.
March 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, EUM, Short Term, Volatility |
I think the trend has finally turned against emerging market stocks. All it took was the threat of a debt default by Russia. That shift is too late for the Brazil and Mexico Put Options I bought on January 24, which expire on Mach 18. But with a Russian debt default looming I’m replacing those Puts with an ETF that shorts the major emerging markets index.
February 28, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The U.S. Treasury has prohibited transactions with the Central Bank of Russia and imposed sanctions on a key Russian sovereign wealth fund. I can’t find any other instance where sanctions as sweeping as these have been imposed on a central bank and economy this big. Suffice it to say, this is uncharted territory and no one knows where this will take us.
February 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January.
February 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I know it’s easy to forget that there’s other market moving news on the horizon (besides what the next day will bring in the Russian invasion of Ukraine) but tomorrow, Friday, February 25, the government will report the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation index that the Federal Reserve uses, for January. That measure is projected to show inflation rising at an annual rate of 6% in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core rate, which excludes food and fuels, is forecast to climb to an annualized 5.2%. The PCE index was up 5.8% year over year in December. The core rate was up 4.9% year over year in December.
February 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
Yes, interest rates and the Federal Reserve and the Ukraine/Russia conflict are likely to dominate stock market direction this week, but don’t forget the power of the Iran/United States nuclear talks to move oil prices or the power of moves by Chinese regulators to wipe billions off the value of the country’s Internet stocks
February 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
Russian state media are reporting a bomb explosion outside the separatist-controlled administration building in the rebel-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Video filmed by Russian reporters at the scene showed a fire burning. The car belonged to the head of the DNR’s police force, Denis Sinenkov, reports said. The explosion follows multiple warnings by the United States and others of a “false flag” incident, that could be used by Russia as a pretext to justify a military attack on Ukraine.
February 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Short Term, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and third YouTube video “QuickPick Alcoa” went up today. This week, my Quick Pick is Alcoa (AA). Like in other commodities, with aluminum we are seeing a supply deficit amidst growing demand. Plus, Alcoa is paying down its debt, and generating a positive cash flow which has led the company to announce a dividend payment and re-institute stock buybacks.
February 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
If you believe as I do that one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals in igniting the current conflict in Ukraine was to attempt to use Europe’s dependency on Russia natural gas to drive a wedge among NATO members, the most recent developments make a great deal of sense. And we look like we’re on the road to a major escalation of the conflict in the Ukraine.
February 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
As if tomorrow wasn’t dangerous enough. Not only do $2.2 trillion in options expire, but it’s a long weekend. And with war, perhaps, ready to break out at any moment, very few traders will want to stay long ahead of the three-day Presidents’ Day weekend.
February 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
$2.2 trillion of options are set to expire on Friday. That includes $545 billion on individual stocks, Goldman Sachs estimates. And about $985 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts and $165 billion in options tied to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the world’s largest exchange-traded fund, Bloomberg reports.
During the last year equity indexes have shown a reliable pattern of lurching lower near the expiration Friday
February 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start raising interest rates soon and were on alert for persistent inflation that would justify a faster pace of tightening. Since then, CPI inflation has jumped to an annual 7.5% in January and employers have added almost 500,000 new jobs. The markets have no doubt that the Fed will raise interest rates at its March 16 meeting and has strongly moved to favor a 50 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate rather than the traditional 25 basis point move. The financial markets now price in 150 basis points of interest rate increases in 2022
