10-year Treasuries fall along with stocks today
10-year Treasury yield hits 1.30% even as stocks drop with rates hitting peak from before the March 2020 pandemic panic
Short Term
House committee moves legislation for $593.5 billion in stimulus checks and child tax credits toward full House vote week of February 22
Before the House and Senate can move the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus package ahead using a process called reconciliation, individual committees need to approve their pieces of the budget. Today, February 12, the House Ways and Means Committee voted to approve $593.5 billion in $1400 stimulus checks and a $3,600 annual child tax credit as part of that Biden budget. The full House is on a schedule to vote on the complete package during the week of February 22.
Stocks drift while they look for sector leadership
Stock market indexes finished slightly higher today, February 11–the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.17% at the close–or slightly lower–the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 0.02%–as investors looked to see whether technology would resume its mantle of market leadership or if the cape of leadership would pass to consumer stocks. The evidence today was inconclusive.
House Committees draft budget bills; next step for Biden coronavirus stimulus/relief package
The next stage in advancing the Biden administration’s coronavirus stimulus/relief package is for committees in the House and Senate to draft the budget bills that will form the basis of the reconciliation process that can get the package past the threat of a filibuster in the Senate. The first drafts of some of those committee bills emerged in the House today.
GameStop Reddit trade plunges; money seeks new plays
As of 3:15 p.m. today, February 2, in New York, shares of GameStop (GME)were down 56.22% to $98.50. That a big drop from the January 27 closing high of $347.51, but it’s still significantly above the $17.25 price on January 4. Other stocks that have ridden the Reddit WallStreetBets fever for short squeeze horses are down today too. AMC (AMC) is off 39.70% to $8.02. First Majestic Silver (AG), the big silver play of the last few days, has given up 24.28% to $16.75. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is off 14.64% to $25.77. American Airlines (AAL), an early short squeeze play, slipped 1.16% to $17.65. The only potential short squeeze bet (if it was, that is) that’s still climbing is vaccine pill biotech Vaxart (VXRT), which was up 34.30% at 3:15 and looks to be riding momentum into the close. (The shares were up 54.43% as of 3:40 p.m.) Vaxart does bring this question to mind: So if the money is coming out of GameStop, etc., where is it going?
Accepting what we don’t know (what no one knows) about prices in this market
I looked at my Jubak Picks Portfolio with more than a tinge of seller’s remorse this morning. I sold shares of First Majestic Silver (AG) out of that portfolio on Friday, January 29, after the stock rose 21.38% on Thursday. That gave me a gain of 45.52% since I began this position on July 6, 2019.I argued in justification for this sell that the attempt by individual investors on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to force a short squeeze in silver, as they had in GameStop (GME), were likely to fail because there was such a big stockpile of physical silver ready to enter the market. So I took my profit. Only to have the stock climb an other 21.3% today, February 1, as of 2:30 p.m. New York time as individual investors did indeed drive up the price of silver futures. The Shares Silver Trust (SLV) was up 6.40% as of 2:30 New York time today as the intraday price of silver limbed to the highest level since 2013. And then I thought about that seller’s remorse.
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
Let’s start with the macro picture first: On Friday the the government will report January jobs numbers. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are projecting a slight uptick in jobs with the economy expected to show job adds in the month instead of the 140,000 lost jobs of December. But the increase, if it happens, isn’t expected to be enough to move the official unemployment rate from its current 6.7% level. The figures are expected to show significant job losses in sectors such as hospitality, leisure, and restaurants that have been hit heavily by the coronavirus and shutdowns designed to slow the spread of the infection. The jobs numbers are certain to affect the prospects for the $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus/relief package proposed by the Biden administration.
Today’s rally in renewable and infrastructure stocks takes cash out of technology sector
Of course, a sector can rally on new cash coming off the sidelines. Often, however, when one sector rallies another falls as investors use profits from that sector to fund new buys. That seems to be what happened today when “green” stocks rallied and technology shares fell.
Santa Claus rally adds another up day on December 31–with records on the S&P and Dow
The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.64% today to a new closing high and ended the year ahead more than 16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed in record territory after a gain of 0.65% on the day. The Dow is up about 7% for 2020. The NASDAQ Composite managed a gain of 0.14% to bring its gain to 40% for 2020. Today’s advance in the Santa Claus period–which historically also includes the first two trading days in January so it’s not quite over yet–is a good omen for 2021.
The big vaccine story today is out of China–just before the start of the Lunar New Year travel season
A coronavirus vaccine developed by Chinese drugmaker Sinopharm is 79% effective in protecting people from the coronavirus, according to interim data released Wednesday by the company Sinopharm. The results for the two-shot vaccine were based on interim analysis from Phase 3 trials.
More, more (stimulus), cries the stock market
Yesterday stocks moved higher on news that President Donald Trump had actually signed the combined coronavirus stimulus/relief and government spending bill. I guess after contemplating the possibility of no bill and another government shutdown, even $600 checks seemed like a big deal. Today, not so much. Worries that Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will prevent the House-passed bill increasing the size of those checks to $2,000 from even coming up for a vote on the floor of the Senate were enough to trigger a mild retreat in stock prices.
Reminder: Today is the deadline for selling to take tax losses in 2020
Sell today if you’re looking to sell to generate tax losses for 2020. After today, December 29, you can still sell but the losses will count for the 2021 tax year.
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