Short Term
January 21, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Magnificent Seven stocks accounted for virtually all of 2023’s 24% stock market gain. The Magnificent Seven stocks are Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). And according to Wall Street analysts these stocks are set to do it again when they report fourth quarter earnings beginning this week (on Wednesday, Jonuary 24, with Tesla and continuing into the following week.The Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver combined earnings growth of about 46%, according to data from Bloomberg. That’s down slightly from the third quarter’s 53% expansion, but it still dwarfs almost all of the main sectors in the S&P 500 Index. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the long Magnificent Seven (and other tech stocks) is the most common trade in the current market. Nor that the options market is pricing in “virtually no risk” for mega-cap stocks, Brian Donlin, head of equity derivatives strategy at Stifel Nicolaus, told Bloomberg. All of which makes the recent weakness in some of the Mgnificent Seven stocks a bit worrying. Apple and Tesla are most likely to deliver disappointing numbers.
January 17, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Last month, the bond market was almost fully pricing the first interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in March. Now, though the odds for a 25 basis point cut are down to more like 50/50. Today, January 17, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose another 5 basis points to 4.10%.
January 14, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, QCOM, Short Term, Special Reports, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
GREATER Growth Stock Pick #10: Qualcomm (QCOM). I think the market and the current stock price are missing a good prt of the growth story for Qualcomm. Which is why I find the stock undervalued enough to buy here. Right now the market disagrees. However, I’ll be adding the stock to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios on Tuesday, January 16.
January 13, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Like every season of earnings reports, this one will be chock full of real earnings news and will come complete with strenuous efforts at gaming those real results. Three big questions for the week-and for earnings season. First, question: How much “bad news” has been already discounted by analyst cuts to earnings expectations?
January 11, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Federal Reserve officials were out with one message today: The slightly higher-than-expected CPI inflation number for December/the slightly-slower-than-expected slowdown in CPI inflation argues that there’s still more work to be done on bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. And that talk of a rate cut in March is premature.
January 9, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2023 begins on Friday, January 12 with reports from the big banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Bank of America (BAC). Which means that earnings season is going start off with a dull thud. More than 70% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 companies that are scheduled to report earnings for the fourth quarter over the next few weeks are banks and the banking segment of the the financial sector in the index is projected by Wall Street analysts to show a 21% year over year decline in earnings
January 3, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Wall Street strategists began the year calling for a pull back in U.S. stocks after the huge year-end rally of 2023. So far that call is right on. NASDAQ 100 stocks fell 1.1% today Wednesday, January 3, to extend their losing streak to four sys, the longest in more than two moths. The Standard & Poor’s 50 ended the y down 0.80% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 076%. The NASDAQ Composite lost 1.18% on the day. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped 3.3%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VXI) gained 644% to a still very low “fear” rating of 14.05. But what’s the cause and what’s the effect?
November 18, 2023 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Short Term, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
Nvidia’ earnings report after the close on Tuesday, November 21, will be the big event of the short Thanksgiving week.
November 12, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I expect Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report for October to be critical in determining whether the Christmas rally narrative can be sustained.
November 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The financial markets continue to swing from extreme to extreme in sentiment. The markets were wrong at the beginning of last week. It’s likely the markets are wrong again.
November 3, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, RWM, Short Term |
On Monday, I will add to my short position in the small-cap Russell 2000 by buying more of the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF (RWM) for my Jubak Picks Portfolio. This buy will give me two positions in the ProShares Short Russell ETF. The first position, added to the portfolio on July 23, 2023 is up 0.08% as of the close on November 3. Why go all in on shorting the Russell now?
October 27, 2023 | AMZN, Daily JAM, INTC, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks, VIX, Volatility |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
