Videos
July 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-fifty-third YouTube video “Trend of the Week: The Global Debt Bomb is Ticking” went up today. Overly dramatic? I don’t think so. In this week’s video, I look at the few countries that are leading what looks to me like a parade of global defaulters on their sovereign debt. Dire warnings issued by the IMF and World Bank have predicted that other “developing economies” may follow. Plus, I give some tips for plays you can make to insulate yourself from this risk right now.
July 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-fifty-second YouTube video “Quick Pick Kimberly Clark” went up today. This week I’m looking at Kimberly-Clark (KMB), a consumer staples producer that I’m sure many of you are familiar with. I think in the coming recession, this stock will be well insulated: Consumers will continue to buy brands such as Kleenex, Depend, and Cottonelle. So far this year, the stock is down but has outperformed the S&P. Today, July 1, the shares gained 1.19%. The stock pays a 3.5% dividend and I will be adding it to my Dividend Portfolio after the holiday.
June 30, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-fifty-first YouTube video “Position Your Portfolio for the Recessioin–But What Kind of Recession”” went up today. I see it like this: How you should position your portfolio for the coming recession depends largely on how bad you think it will be. Already, we can see that different sectors of the economy will do better than others. For example, consumer staples seem like a good bet if we think the recession will be relatively mild, but if the recession gets worse, they won’t be immune either. Take a look and tell me what you think.
June 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, LNG, Videos, Volatility |
My Quick Pick this week is Cheniere Energy (LNG), a liquified natural gas producer that I currently own in my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and plan to add to my Jubak Picks portfolio as well. The stock has fallen as U.S. natural gas prices have taken a hit after a fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas facility that has caused a backup in U.S. LNG exports. I think it’s a great time to get in on this long-term story at Cheniere, which just announced that it had given the go-ahead to the construction of a new LNG chain at its Corpus Christi facility. That chain won’t be in operation until 2025 but I see the demand for U.S. LNG continuing to rise through then.
June 22, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation” went up today. In front of the Senate Finance Committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed has all the tools it needs to fight inflation–except, he admitted, that nothing it does to raise interest rates will lower the price of gasoline or food. Those prices don’t figure into the core inflation rate the Fed watches, but they are very real to consumers. More money spent on food and fuel means less money available for everything else.
June 20, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-seventh YouTube video “Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates” went up today. My Trend of the Week video this week looks at hedge fund gurus who have been yelling that the Federal Reserve needs even bigger interest rate increases than the 0.75% hike the central bank delivered on June 15. Most of these hedge fund managers are arguing their own book–since they’re short Treasuries–but that doesn’t mean they are wrong in their predictions for how high rates will need to go before we see inflation start to come down.
June 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas Fund–update” went up today. The fire at the Freeport Liquified Natural Gas facility has disrupted U.S exports of natural gas. That’s resulted in a short-term glut in U.S. markets and what I think is a short-term buying opportunity for long-term gains in natural gas and this fund. Especially with winter and its surge in natural gas use just a few months away.
June 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fifth YouTube video “Fed Hike Makes the Market Happy” went up today. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points today–instead of the 50 points so widely expected just weeks ago–and stocks rallied. Here’s the Wall Street narrative that explains why.
June 13, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fourth YouTube video “China Stocks Soar on End to Tech Crackdown” went up today. In the past few weeks–at least before the inflation/interest rate meltdown in U.S. markets,–I’ve seen an uptick in big China stocks like Alibaba (BABA), DiDi Global (DIDI), and JD.com (JD) on signs that Chinese regulators are easing up on tech stocks as the government tries to jump start China’s economy. If you’re looking for stocks that aren’t correlated to the U.S. economy and markets, I think this is a good time to revisit some of these stocks, especially JD.Com and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)
June 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-third YouTube video “Quick Pick Truist Financial” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Truist Financial Corp (TFC), a “super-regional” bank based in the Southeast. Bank stocks have been down recently on rising costs (got to pay more to keep your good people, these days), but Truist Financial, formed through a merger of BB&T and Sun Trust, is still taking out acquisition costs. My rule of thumb these days is to buy a dividend stock when the yield hits 4% or more. Thanks to the retreat in bank stocks Truist Financial now pays 4/02 plus with its share buyback plan the total yield hits 5.75%. I’ll be adding this Monday to my Dividend Income Portfolio on JubakPicks.com and JubakAM.com.
June 9, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-secondYouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds rising for a 75 basis point increase in July and/or September. I think these extreme bets on a 75 basis point increase have more to do with attitudes toward inflation than with actual belief in a 75-basis-point interest rate increase in those two months–that is that it will be tougher to bring it under control than the Federal Reserve now thinks. But these extreme positions are something to watch going forward. To one way of thinking they represent the chance for a rally in stocks if traders retreat from the 75-basis-point camp.
May 31, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-eighth YouTube video “Housing market cools” went up today. We’re seeing some of the first effects of the Fed’s increase in interest rates in the cooling of the housing market. In Austin, for example, the percentage of active listings with price cuts has increased, and we have seen the lowest number of new purchases since the start of the pandemic. Since many American families have a large portion (or all) of their wealth stored in their home, housing prices have a big effect on consumer spending. We might expect to see that slow consumer spending, which would help to control inflation.
