Volatility
Fed lesson today: Don’t count your interest rate cuts before they hatchet
Stocks, bonds, and President Donald Trump were disappointed today when the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone and said that low inflation could be transitory. There's no reason to either raise or lower interest rates at the moment, Fed chair Jerome Powell said...
Making Incyte #9 on my 10 most dangerous stocks for earnings season Special Report–and #5 on my buy on any plunge Bonus Special Report
There's a good chance that Incyte (INCY) will miss Wall Street earnings and revenue projections when it reports first quarter results on April 30. That's because Incyte is a biotech adolescent. Think awkward. The company is old enough to have substantial revenue from...
Now it’s the European Union on the trade war front lines
Just in case you were worried that global trade wars were in any danger of calming down, today you can relax. Trade hostilities with the European Union are heating up. On Monday the Trump administration said it would impose tariffs on $11 billion in imports from the...
Recessions are built on negative shifts in sentiment so today’s news isn’t good
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 58.9 from 60 in the week ended March 31, according to a report Thursday. That's an eight-week low. Survey respondents’ sentiment on their personal finances posted the steepest two-week drop since 2015. All three main...Has the Fed panicked? Should investors?
Let's remind ourselves of exactly how big a policy u-turn the Federal Reserve has steered in the last three months. In December the Fed was looking at 2 interest rate increases in 2019 and an announcement of an end to its balance sheet run off by, maybe, September. In...
Holding onto my April 18 Boeing puts a little longer
I bought Boeing (BA) puts (the April 18, 2019 put with a $290 strike to be precise) back in December as a way to hedge against a big escalation in the U.S.-China trade war and a plunge in the export-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average. (The Dow is a price-weighted...
Just a reminder of how much of a speculative casino China can be
Overnight the Shanghai stock market, as measured by the Shanghai Composite Index, fell 4.4%. (Which took down other Asian markets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 2.33%.) That's a substantial drop, no? Causes? First, a huge drop in China's exports. Exports fell...
Another day, another cut to forecasts of global economic growth
Yesterday, March 6, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) joined the International Monetary Fund in warning that the global economy is slowing more than previously expected. "The global expansion continues to lose momentum," the OECD said in...
Here’s why all eyes are on the release of this Fed’s January minutes this afternoon
All Today's release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting has the potential to move markets--maybe even more potential than usual. That's because the market is looking for guidance on a series of Fed-centric issues. First, there's the...
China trade talks resume–with a notable lack of momentum
The latest round of U.S.-China trade talks resumed today in Washington. The Trump administration's March 1 deadline continues to walk nearer--although everyone on Wall Street expects that President Trump will decide good progress has been made and will extend the...
President Trump to sign spending bill to avoid shutdown but will declare national emergency to secure funding for The Wall
At 3:26 p.m. Washington time Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell interrupted a speech by Iowa Senate Chuck Grassley on biofuels to announce that President Donald Trump would sign the deal worked out by the House and Senate to fund nine departments of the federal...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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