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Recessions are built on negative shifts in sentiment so today’s news isn’t good
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 58.9 from 60 in the week ended March 31, according to a report Thursday. That's an eight-week low. Survey respondents’ sentiment on their personal finances posted the steepest two-week drop since 2015. All three main...Unsettling market risk potential for Thursday and Friday
Today, Wednesday April 3, action in the three legs that support stocks near the highs for 2019 pointed toward significant risk for Thursday and Friday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed the day up 0.21% at 2873. Leg 1 for the market: The financials, the...Has the Fed panicked? Should investors?
Let's remind ourselves of exactly how big a policy u-turn the Federal Reserve has steered in the last three months. In December the Fed was looking at 2 interest rate increases in 2019 and an announcement of an end to its balance sheet run off by, maybe, September. In...
I’m selling Exxon Mobil out of my Dividend Portfolio as part of my annual portfolio rebalancing
I'm part way through the annual rebalancing of my Dividend Portfolio (with other portfolios to follow.) The initial stage of that process requires a close look at which of the stocks in the portfolio I'd like to keep for another year (based on their prospects for the...
The Fed’s increased worries don’t scare Goldilocks markets
Today, March 20, the Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates at the current 2.25% to 2.5% range at the meeting of the Open Market Committee, but cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2019 and voiced concern about slowing consumer and business spending....
No March meeting on trade deal for Trump and Xi
A potential end of March meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end their trade war won’t take place this month after all. Media are reporting that multiple sources are now post to April at the earliest. If...
Another day, another cut to forecasts of global economic growth
Yesterday, March 6, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) joined the International Monetary Fund in warning that the global economy is slowing more than previously expected. "The global expansion continues to lose momentum," the OECD said in...
U.S. trade deficit soars: I think that makes a U.S.-China trade deal more likely
In December the U.S. trade deficit widened to $59.8 billion from a revised $50.3 billion in November. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a December deficit of $57.8 billion. The December deficit is the widest monthly deficit since October 2008 during...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
Trade. Trade. Trade. Trade will dominate the headlines and set the direction for U.S. and Chinese stocks. Stocks rose last week on any rumor of movement in the U.S.-China trade talks. Friday's rally, for example, was build on optimism generated by news that U.S. and...
President Trump to sign spending bill to avoid shutdown but will declare national emergency to secure funding for The Wall
At 3:26 p.m. Washington time Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell interrupted a speech by Iowa Senate Chuck Grassley on biofuels to announce that President Donald Trump would sign the deal worked out by the House and Senate to fund nine departments of the federal...
Forget recession worries–the big danger now is in the credit cycle
The Federal Reserve and the world's other central banks face an impossible choice. On the one hand, they could have tighten the money supply by raising interest rates or other means. That would have risked sending economies near recession into recession--Germany, for...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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