OKTA

My 5 sells for Monday morning

My 5 sells for Monday morning

I don’t know if Friday’s bounce will continue into the new week. I think the summer season is likely to be positive for revenue at many companies–travel, airlines, Las Vegas–but I don’t like the longer term fundamentals in the economy. Inflation is going to be harder to reduce than Federal Reserve rhetoric and Wall Street sentiment now credit. And there is a good chance of a recession in 2023. But I’m not looking for some kind of crash from here–at least not before a recession tests the credit markets in 2023. We’re on the edge of a bear–the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 18.1% from its all time high as of the close on Thursday–or in a bear–for the technology stocks of the NASDAQ. The typical pattern from here is for a continued decline to be punctuated by sharp rallies and bounces (like Friday) until we put in the ultimate bottom (certainly after a few more Federal Reserve interest rate increases.)
We’re not there yet. This downward trend in equity markets is likely to continue for a while in my opinion. So what am I trying to accomplish with these sells?

In today’s rally everyone loves risk–which isn’t necessarily a good thing

In today’s rally everyone loves risk–which isn’t necessarily a good thing

If you look only at the major indexes, today was a mildly positive day. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.30%, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.73% at the close and the NASDAQ 100 added 0.77%. The small cap Russell 2000 ended ahead 0.34%. But take a look at some of the frankly outlandish gains in the market’s hottest sectors. It’s not difficult to find gains of 5% or more today