My fifth pick for my energy crisis Special Report is GNRC
Pick #5 for the energy crisis is Generac
Pick #5 for the energy crisis is Generac
You don’t need the Department of Energy or the Energy Information Administration to tell you we have an energy crisis. (Good thing since they’re shut down with the rest of the Federal government today.) All you need to do is look at your electricity bill. This summer monthly home electric bills jumped in Trenton, New Jersey, for a typical home by $26. In Philadelphia, it increased about $17. And in Columbus, Ohio, it spiked $27. And your monthly bill doesn’t capture the full damage. In California,residential electric rates are up 62% in five years. In Maryland residential rates are up 54% in five years. Most frustratingly–and most importantly for investors–those bills don’t explain the nature of the crisis.
Or more accurately “crises.” Because we’re the middle of three, overlapping and interlocking energy crises. That are playing out on different timeframes that range from NOW to the next 5 to 10 years. It’s that last point that’s critically important for investors. Because to make money–and let’s be clear: like in all crises there’s money to be made investing in these three crises–you’ve got to understand the nature of each crisis and buy into it at the right time. Not so early that you sell in disappointment because your profits haven’t arrived yet. Not so late that all themes tasty profits are gone. This Special Report is about untangling the 3 energy crises, giving you a timeline for investing in each, and then calling out 10 picks you cause to profit from theses crises. Ya, ready?
Heat advisories now stretch from northern Florida to southern New Mexico, and excessive-heat warnings have been issued for much of Texas and parts of New Mexico and Arizona and along the Gulf Coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. New Orleans is included in the zone of greatest heat risk, with actual air temperatures around 100 degrees and humidity that will push heat indexes to 115 degrees. Excessive-heat watches have been posted for the lower Mississippi Valley and include Memphis and Nashville; Huntsville and Birmingham; Jackson, Mississippi; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Poplar Bluff, Missouri. “Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat-related illnesses,” cautioned the National Weather Service, “particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.” The heat will relent somewhat into early next week for portions of the Southeast and Mid-South, but there is no immediate end in sight for Texas, where blistering and brutal conditions look to continue as a heat doe lingers over Texas. And this is only the latest U.S. manifestation of a global problem.
I’ve got major questions about Generac’s (GNRC) long-term growth. The company, the dominant player in the market for residential backup electric generators (with about 4 times the market share–or about 75% of the market–of its nearest competitor) faces big questions, in my opinion, about its long-term strategy and its ability to grab significant revenue in the clean energy market where it faces competition from larger companies, more established in the market, such as SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH). But in the short run? Say, the next two or maybe three (at the outside) months, I say this is a stock that will ride summer storms and heat waves to gains. Especially, if as I project, the company delivers lackluster quarterly earnings when it reports on August 2, but gives very positive guidance for the next quarter or two
I don’t know if Friday’s bounce will continue into the new week. I think the summer season is likely to be positive for revenue at many companies–travel, airlines, Las Vegas–but I don’t like the longer term fundamentals in the economy. Inflation is going to be harder to reduce than Federal Reserve rhetoric and Wall Street sentiment now credit. And there is a good chance of a recession in 2023. But I’m not looking for some kind of crash from here–at least not before a recession tests the credit markets in 2023. We’re on the edge of a bear–the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 18.1% from its all time high as of the close on Thursday–or in a bear–for the technology stocks of the NASDAQ. The typical pattern from here is for a continued decline to be punctuated by sharp rallies and bounces (like Friday) until we put in the ultimate bottom (certainly after a few more Federal Reserve interest rate increases.)
We’re not there yet. This downward trend in equity markets is likely to continue for a while in my opinion. So what am I trying to accomplish with these sells?
Shares of Generac Holdings (GNRC), a maker of backup power systems, are up 14.05% at 3:45 p.m. New York time today, February 16, after the company reported fourth quarter earnings of $2.51 a share after the market close on Tuesday. Revenue hit $1.06 billion. Wall Street had been expecting earnings of $2.42 a share and revenue of $1.02 billion. For the full 2021 fiscal year net sales climbed 50% to a record $3.75 billion. Adjusted earnings were $9.63 a share. But it was guidance for 2022 that popped the stock.
I wouldn’t call the Glasgow Global Climate Summit, which wraps up on November 12, a failure. The pledge to reduce methane emissions is an important step forward: Methane is an extremely powerful global warming gas. And the promise of a big step up in global reforestation is also a solid contribution to the fight to keep the earth habitable for human beings. But I think it is safe to say that the progress out of the conference isn’t enough. Which is why I’m adding shares of General Holdings (GNRC) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on Monday, November 8.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My sixty-fifth YouTube video “Quick Pick Generac’ went up today.