Trick or Trend: Treasury yields finally tick upward on Friday; was it the start of something (I ask again)?
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Yields on...
Want to know where Treasury yields are headed in the next two weeks? Look to Europe
In the short-term, if bond traders and investors flee the euro and European bonds and pile into U.S. Treasuries, Treasury prices will up and yields go down despite any pick up in U.S. inflation. That would confound bond bears betting on falling prices and rising yields. So what are the odds of such a flight to the safety of U.S. Treasuries?
Bond market weakness returns on pause in rout, weak auction
Today the yield on the 10-year Treasury moved up 3 basis points, back above 2.80% to 2.83%, just about where it was before the flight to the safety of Treasuries sent yields back towards 2.70%
Two-year Treasury yield back to 2%, rate not seen since global financial crisis
This morning the yield on the two-year Treasury note hit 2%. The yield on this shortish term Treasury, which is extremely sensitive to expectations on interest rate moves by the Federal Reserve, hasn’t seen 2% since September 2008. The yield on the two-year Treasury is now up 17 basis points in a month and 83 basis points in a year. That’s an extraordinarily fast climb in yields and remember that bond prices fall as yields rise
China officials said to recommend slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries
Just what an already jittery bond market needs: reports that senior Chinese officials reviewing the country’s purchases of U.S. Treasuries have recommended slowing or halting that buying. It’s not clear from these reports whether the recommendation is based on fears of a China/United States trade war, on weakness in the U.S. dollar, on readings of rising supply as the U.S. deficit is set to expand or other factors.
Are bond yields finally climbing (and bond prices falling) in a belated response to a global shift in central bank policies?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed 7 basis points today to 2.55%. That’s the highest yield since March. That prompted bond guru Bill Gross to declare that we have entered a confirmed bear market in bonds with the upward trend lines of 25 years broken for 5-and 10-year Treasuries.
Bonds move down, yields up for a fifth straight day on tax bill
Prices on U.S. Treasuries fell and yields rose for a fifth straight day. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 3 basis points to 2.50%. In the last month the yield on the 10-year Treasury has climbed 13 basis points. The yield on the two-year Treasury is up 11 basis points in the same period.
Trick or trend: How flat will the yield curve get?
The Treasury yield curve continues to get flatter. Today, November 27, the gap between the yield on the 2-year Treasury, at 1.74%, and the 10-year Treasury, at 2.32%, narrowed by another basis point to 58 basis points. (100 basis points make up 1 percentage point.) In the last year the yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped by 3 basis points while the yield on the 2-year note has climbed by 62 basis points. Frequently, a narrowing yield curve is a sign that we’re headed into a recession. But not this time, in my opinion.
The yield curve on Treasuries goes from flat to flatter
Bond traders are convinced that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates at its December 13 meeting–according to the CME Fed Watch calculator, the odds of a December 13 interest rate increase are 96.7%. But bond traders are also convinced that the Fed won’t raise rates four times in 2018 as it has signaled. Two rate increases and that’s it, the market is saying
Financial markets try to price in vague Trump tax cut plan
The Treasury market has been taking a beating recently with traders and investors increasingly pricing in a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. So today’s flat performance for the 10-year Treasury is actually a relief, especially considering that the Treasury sold $28 billion in 7-year notes today.
Trick or trend: Will bonds keep falling? Will the rout spread to other assets?
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