December 11, 2017 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Both Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are now predicting that average interest rates across the world’s advanced economies will climb to at least 1% in 2018. That might not seem like much, but remember that major economies such as Japan and the European Union now have negative interest rates. Overall the two Wall Street megabanks are telling investors to get ready for the biggest tightening of monetary policy since 2006, before the global financial crisis.
June 28, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.1% for 2017 (from 2.3%) and to 2.1% in 2018 (from 2.5%.) The fund had included a likely infrastructure spending bill and a tax cut/tax reform package in its earlier forecast. Now the IMF ha removed those potential stimulus actions from its forecast. The IMF also poured cold water on assumptions in the draft administration budget for economic growth of 3% in 2021.
October 27, 2016 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
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September 10, 2016 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Short Term, Volatility |
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August 15, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Standard & Poor’s 500 moved to another record today and closed at 2190.15, up 0.28%, on news that U.S. and Chinese retail sales were weaker than expected and that the Japanese economy went back into the tank after a strong first quarter for growth.
August 2, 2016 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
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July 21, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
No cut in interest rates. No expansion or extension of asset purchases. No nothing from the governors of the European Central Bank at today’s meeting
July 7, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
Today it looks like the financial markets are holding their collective breath waiting for tomorrow’s official jobs report for June. As of 3 p.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down a slight 0.23%. At least that’s the impression an investor gets looking at the U.S. equity markets. But in the bond market, which I’d argue is more important than the market for stocks right now, there’s considerable turmoil not so far under the surface
July 1, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
While other central banks–the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, for example–are signaling their willingness to throw more cash at the global financial system in the wake of the Brexit vote that is likely to send the United Kingdom tumbling out of the European Union, Jens Weidmann, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, doesn’t want to play.
June 29, 2016 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Any post-Brexit crisis will will be a slow motion crisis driven by a gradual slowdown in economic growth in the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, China and the United States that results in a dimming of prospects for corporate earnings growth. The crisis will be interrupted periodically, as it has been in the last two days, by the hope that this time central banks will be able to intervene and get this or that economy growing again
April 22, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It’s central banks to the front today–but you really need an inside-bank scorecard to understand why markets have reacted as they have to the news/rumors out of the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China this morning.
March 10, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The longer the financial markets thought about the actions announced by the European Central Bank today, the less impressed markets were. The STOXX 600 Europe Index had climbed as much as 2.5% during the day, but after peaking around 1 p.m., the index finished down 1.7% for the day.
