November 10, 2016 | Daily JAM |
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to that post. Here are the six points that I forget to make yesterday. I’m posting them here separately and also folding them into last night’s post so that guide will be in not complete at least completer. The six items are China, Rudy Giuliani, Oil, Russia, Tax repatriation, and War.
October 19, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Last night the Chinese government reported a wok full of economic data. GDP climbed 6.7% in the third quarter of 2016 from the third quarter of 2015. That matches the 6.7% year over year growth reported for the second quarter. And it just happens to lie smack dab in the middle of the government’s goal of 6.5% to 7% growth for 2016
October 19, 2016 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
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October 13, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility |
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September 19, 2016 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Today’s warning from the Bank for International Settlements was the most dire yet. What’s called the credit-t0-GDP gap climbed to 30.1%. This measure, which compares the current credit-to-GDP ratio and its long term trend is now the highest for China in the data series that stretches back to 1995. The Bank for International Settlements says that any gap above 10% signals elevated strains in a country’s banking system
June 27, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
The last time that the People’s Bank tried to pull off this balancing act was back in January 2016 when what looked like an extended trend of weaker fixings against the dollar contributed in a decline in emerging markets of 13.8% from December 28 to January 20.
June 15, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility |
Wait until next year. Again. Morgan Stanley Capital International, the keeper of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, yesterday decided that it wasn’t time yet to include China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in the stock index. This marks a third “No” from Morgan Stanley’s index keepers
June 13, 2016 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
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June 2, 2016 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
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May 31, 2016 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
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April 11, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
This is a big week for China data. By Friday we’ll know what the official growth rate for China’s economy was in the first quarter. Then all we’ll have to do is figure out how that official number correlates with reality. Estimates now call for the Friday report of first quarter GDP to show year over year growth of 6.7% in the period
April 1, 2016 | Daily JAM |
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