Why today’s good news shock on jobs comes at a really unfortunate time
I'd argue the last thing we needed today was good news. In case you're been hiding under a rock, you know that the economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. (Read my immediately prior post for a run down of why these...
A near-term threat to the V-shaped recovery
Stock prices--3068.76 on for the Standard & Poor's 500 as of 1 p.m. New York time today--continue to climb toward the all-time closing record for the S&P 500 at 3386.15 set on February 19. That makes some sense if you believe that the Federal Reserve will...
Wall Street starts to watch something called the market price/liquidity ratio to justify this rally
The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index may be closing in on the February 19 record closing high of 3386.15--about 11.2% from the Friday, May 29, close at 3044.31, but some Wall Street strategists see more rally ahead--with a close at the end of 2020 near 3,500 as a...
Selling Constellation Brands out of my Volatility Portfolio; adding it to my Special Reports Dividend waiting list.
Constellation Brands (STZ) is up more than $70 a share--or 67% from its March 23 low $105.64. At today's close of $176.41, up another 2.38% today, the stock is knocking on the door of the $185.96 high and the 200-day moving average at $182.08. I added it to the...
Mortgage delinquencies soar in April
The number of borrowers who stopped paying their home loans jumped by 1.6 million last month, according to data from Black Knight, a real estate analytics company. The national mortgage delinquency rate rose to 6.45% in April, up from 3.06% in March. That's three...
Oil keeps on rallying–and takes market with it
Remember how back on April 20 West Texas Intermediate traded at a negative $40.32 a barrel on the futures market? Then the fears were that anyone who owned a forward future and who was forced to accept delivery of that oil would not be able to find a place to store...
Selling Illinois Tool Works out of my Dividend Portfolio to make room for new dividend strategy and new picks
Way back in November 2019--if you remember a period when projected earnings growth was strong and before the coronavirus recession--I argued for a dividend strategy that focused on companies with fast growing and solidly predictable earnings that were, in my opinion,...
Stocks roar ahead on perfect storm of good news
As of 1 p.m. New York time today, May 18, the Standard & Poor's 500 is up 3.17% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is higher by 3.60%. The NASDAQ Composite has climbed 2.47% and the Russell 2000 small cap index is ahead 5.29%. The iShares Emerging Markets ETF...
Retail sales plunge 16.4% in April
U.S. retail sales fell 16.4% in April from March levels, the Commerce Department reported today. March itself had seen an 8.3% month to month drop. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a 12% decline. In a separate report from the Federal Reserve today...
We need to start worrying about the economy–and especially the country’s small businesses–stepping off a fiscal cliff
Almost none of the provisions in any of the coronavirus rescue packages provide even medium term support or stimulus. Extra unemployment benefits, small business loans, and even the airline bailout expire in a period that stretches only from the end of June to...
Two negative views of the oil market–and one’s from OPEC
It will take more than a year, and perhaps several years, for oil demand to recover to what it was before the coronavirus pandemic, said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency ahead of Thursday's update on energy markets. Crude demand of...Download Jim’s eBook for Free
