December 13, 2017 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
No surprise: The Federal Reserve raised its short-term benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.25% to 1.50% at today’s meeting. No surprise: The Fed and its outgoing chair Janet Yellen didn’t say anything new. The labor market continues to strengthen and economic growth has been solid. Overall inflation and core inflation have declined this year and are running below the Fed’s target of 2%. But there were surprises in the “dot plot.”
December 11, 2017 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to say anything especially revealing abut future interest rates after the Wednesday, December 13, meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in the last scheduled post-meeting press event of the Janet Yellen Federal Reserve, resolutely stay the rhetorical course. But that likely reticence isn’t stopping economists from moving toward projecting more and faster interest rate increases in 2018.
October 1, 2017 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Friday’s job report for September will be an even bigger deal than usual. The report comes as the market is thinking and then re-thinking its belief that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December 13 meeting.
July 14, 2017 | Daily JAM, Uncategorized |
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August 29, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility |
Last week Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen tried to convince financial markets in her speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole get-together that an interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 21 meeting was still a possibility. But just as the market has brushed off earlier similar comments from the heads of the Atlanta and San Francisco Federal Reserve Banks, this week has opened with financial markets saying in essence No way
June 8, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
There wasn’t much in the economic data today to make the financial markets reconsider their belief in the return of Goldilocks. Global growth numbers supported the view that key world economies will turn in decent performances. But none were so strong as to suggest putting higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve back on the schedule.
October 15, 2015 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Markets in economies where the recent news on growth and inflation has been more negative are up more today.
April 17, 2013 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Growth fears have hit the market hard again this morning. And the revival of growth fears shifts the risk/reward on emerging vs. developed markets and extends the upside on safe haven consumer stocks
June 13, 2011 | Daily JAM, Videos |
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March 1, 2011 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
A mixed bag on manufacturing growth from the world’s economies this morning. In China manufacturing grew at the slowest rate in six months. In the United States the national factory index climbed to 61.4 in February from 60.8 in January. In Europe manufacturing expanded at the fastest rate in 10 years.
January 27, 2011 | Long Term, Morning Briefing |
Business investment remained encouragingly strong with orders for non-defense capital goods—excluding aircraft—climbing by 1.4% in December after increasing by 3.1% in November. Why “excluding aircraft”? Because there seems to be something wrong with the seasonal adjustments to aircraft orders.
