March 25, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The figures are short-term and tentative but the trend isn't good. Global trade volume fell 1.8% in the three months through January from the previous three months, according to the World Trade Monitor from the statistics office of the Netherlands. That's the biggest...
March 18, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Over the weekend the South China Morning News reported that the proposed meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement ending the U.S.-China trade war may now be pushed back to June. That meeting had originally been scheduled for...
February 8, 2019 | Daily JAM |
Today, a day when the U.S. financial markets seem to be in a mood to worry about China, is a good time to look at the likeliest outcomes of the U.S.-China trade talks and the likely market reaction to those outcomes. The clock is ticking on the Trump administration's...
February 8, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
As of this morning, more than 75% of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index have reported fourth quarter earnings. As per usual, the bulk of companies have beaten Wall Street earnings estimates. (This is just a game that Wall Street and CEOs play.)...
January 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
China and other export-oriented Asian economies delivered really grim news on growth last night and yet U.S. stocks have refused to move into the red. As of 2:20 p.m. New York time on Thursday the Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 0.07% The NASDAQ Composite was...
January 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It's not just China anymore. Unfortunately. The Caixin Media and IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index for China's manufacturing sector fell to 49.7 in December  from 50.2, its lowest reading since May 2017. That confirms a trend seen in the official government PMI on...
December 9, 2018 | Daily JAM |
... a week of transition in the financial markets as the debacle of the post-Trump-Xi announcements moves further behind in the rear view mirror and the December 19 meeting of the Federal Reserve looms ever larger ahead. Last week, doubts that the Chinese had actually...
October 11, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
A Big Bad Wolf market? A Sauron market? An Evil Stepmother market? The reaction to this morning's inflation report suggests me might need a name for this kind of market. The worry, my worry, going into today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report from the...
October 9, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Just what we need: More worries about global growth. Last night the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 2019. In its last forecast three months ago the IMF had projected that the global economy would grow...
September 11, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Let's start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the markets...
August 6, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The pound is down today against the dollar on Brexit fears. And the euro is also lower against the U.S. currency on a surprise slump in German economic growth. Not good news for U.S. exports to Europe (which get pricier as the pound and euro fall) or for a global...
July 6, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
At 12:01 a.m. last night higher U.S. tariffs went into effect on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated with higher tariffs on U.S. exports such as autos and soybeans. The Trump administration already has tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese...