May 3, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Immediately after the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates another 25 basis points today, stocks moved up on a reading of the Fed’s 2 p.m. statement released with the rate news that saw the Fed as saying it would begin to cut interest rates soon. At 2:26 p.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.58%. In Wednesday’s statement, the Fed said, “In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” In March, the central bank had said it “anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.” But stocks peaked for the day shortly after Fed chair Jerome Powell began his press conference at 2:30 p.m.
July 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Stocks sold off heavily this morning with the Standard & Poor’s down 2% and the NASDAQ Composite off 1.9%. They have rallied in the afternoon so that the S&P 500 is up 0.16% and the NASDAQ is up 1.75% at the close. What we’re seeing is the current consensus at work.
February 27, 2020 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
How can I be so precise? Because March 18 is the date of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve's interest rate setting Open Market Committee. And in the last two days financial markets have stampeded to a belief that the Fed will enact an emergency interest rate cut...
November 21, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about...
May 15, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as it...
September 4, 2014 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Moves of this magnitude won’t have any effect on EuroZone growth rates or inflation. Instead they’re best seen as a promise that next meeting the ECB will begin a program of asset purchases.
