It’s getting to look a lot like end of the year volatility
Remember how back in September a spike in very short term overnight rates in the repo market kicked off volatility across the financial markets until the Federal reserve flooded that market with liquidity? Well, signs are that we could see the kind of spike in...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
... central bank week. The Federal Reserve announces changes to U.S. benchmark interest rates on Wednesday, December 11. The central bank is expected to keep rates at current levels. The European Central Bank meets a day later, on Thursday, December 12. It too is...Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning's testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. “We see the current stance of...
The Fed interest rate pause that …
Distresses? Refreshes? Isn't important? Today, as expected the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The Fed lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. At the same time the Fed signaled that it would...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
... that news on a U.S.-China trade agreement will still be a big mover from stocks, but it will have to share top-of-mind space this week with the Wednesday, October 30, meeting of the Federal Reserve's interest rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. As far as...
Fed minutes from September show debate on how low interest rates should go
Here's the most important point, to me, from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting released today. At the meeting the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2019. “Several participants suggested that the committee’s...
Today’s stock gains look like a traders’ bounce rather than a shift in sentiment
Yes, U.S. stocks were up today with the S&P 500 closing higher by 1.10% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1.11%. But that still left the stock market down for the week. And looking at the performance today of risk havens, today's move looks to be a bounce...
I think we can call this a data dependent market for Friday
The trend in U.S. financial markets this week has pointed down on data that shows the U.S. economy is slowing. Certainly the disappointing numbers in both the manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Indexes have supported that conclusion. That could all change...
PMI Services disappoints; stocks recover on Fed cut speculation
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index for Services fell to 52.6 for September, according to reports this morning, October 3. That was a drop from August's 56.4 and below the 55.0 that economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected. That left...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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