Has the Fed panicked? Should investors?
Let's remind ourselves of exactly how big a policy u-turn the Federal Reserve has steered in the last three months. In December the Fed was looking at 2 interest rate increases in 2019 and an announcement of an end to its balance sheet run off by, maybe, September. In...
Odds for a Fed interest rate cut don’t move much overnight–but that’s because a huge move has already happened
The Federal Reserve's announcement that it would hold interest rates steady for 2019, that it would end its program to wind down the size of its balance sheet by $50 billion a month in September, and that it projects the economy will grow by just 2.1% in 2019 instead...
The Fed’s increased worries don’t scare Goldilocks markets
Today, March 20, the Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates at the current 2.25% to 2.5% range at the meeting of the Open Market Committee, but cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2019 and voiced concern about slowing consumer and business spending....
Is the Fed on hold of all of 2019? Market and economists differ ahead of Wednesday meeting
According to a Bloomberg survey of 32 economists, the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September. Then it will raise interest rates one final time. And that will bring an end of the recent cycle of interest rate increases. The financial markets beg to differ....
Fed-speak mania today–with two weeks to go before Fed’s quiet period
What does the Federal Reserve want to tell the financial markets? Maybe you believe it's just one of those things. You know, one of those coincidences. But I don't. Seven, count 'em seven, Fed officials are scheduled to speak today, Friday, February 22. That's just...The Fed’s minutes surprise, imagine that
As surprises go today's release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its January meeting doesn't rank up there with Agatha Christie. (Remember 10 Little Indians? Where the murderer turns out to be someone who had earlier faked his own murder?) But still as Fed...
Here’s why all eyes are on the release of this Fed’s January minutes this afternoon
All Today's release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting has the potential to move markets--maybe even more potential than usual. That's because the market is looking for guidance on a series of Fed-centric issues. First, there's the...
Core CPI inflation up 2.2% year over year
For January, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was unchanged, thanks to falling oil prices-the energy component of the index was down 3.1% for the month. The Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices and is closer to the PCE inflation...
One consequence of the change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed's decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen climbing to...Market goes all in on “No interest rate increase for 2019”
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there's more chance of an interest rate cut than of a rate...
So how long before markets react to the dark side of today’s Fed decision?
Today the financial markets are in love with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise rates no more than once in 2019--and more likely zero. And that the central bank will re-examine its policy of letting its balance sheet run off to the tune of $50 billion a...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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