My “best-estimate” scenario for the U.S. stock market for the next 60 days
Let's start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the markets...
Trick or Trend: Treasury yields finally tick upward on Friday; was it the start of something (I ask again)?
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Yields on...
Trick or trend: For September it’s deja vu all over again
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Global...
It’s back–the emerging market crisis that shook global markets just two weeks ago
Remember that emerging market crisis that whacked 10% out of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) between July 31 and August 15--and even produced some anxiety in U.S. markets as the Standard & Poor's 500 fell 2.1% from August 7 through August 15? Well,...
Core consumer inflation climbs at a 2.3% annual rate in July numbers
Granted the Federal Reserve watches the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index to measure inflation, but the big jump in the July Consumer Price Index should remove the last doubts (if any remain) about a September interest rate increase from the Fed. The headline...
Fed statement today cements September interest rate increase
Today Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate at 1.75% to 2.00% and described the U.S. economy in terms that make an interest rate increase at the central bank's September 26 meeting a virtual certainty (absent some startling news event). The CME FedWatch...
Day ahead of Fed rate decision, inflation comes ion track for September interest rate increase
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for June climbed 0.1% at both the headline and core (excluding food and energy prices) levels. That was a tad lower than the 0.2% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. (The PCE index is the Federal...
4.1% GDP growth isn’t enough to make stock market happy
U.S. GDP (in real terms) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter. The economy hasn't seen 4% growth in the memory of most Wall Street analysts (who do, I admit, have short memories), but it still wasn't enough. Economists had been...
Fed chief’s Senate talk calms markets after Netflix guidance disappointment
In his semiannual Senate testimony on the state of the U.S. economy this morning Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave the U.S. economy a strong thumbs up--at least if the tariff war doesn't hit the global economy too badly. (Powell completed his testimony tomorrow...
Inflation, as measured by headline CPI, up 2.9% year over year
Headline inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, was up 0.1% in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was below the 0.2% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. It did, however, bring growth in headline...
My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days
So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let's take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why putting...Jim’s Stock Alerts
Download Jim’s eBook for Free
