Mild inflation numbers lead to mild market gains
The headline consumer price index, the government announced this morning, rose 0.3% in September. That follows on a 0.2% increase in August. The headline rate of inflation is now 1.5% year over year. That’s the highest rate of inflation for this number since October 2014. Core inflation–that is inflation excluding changes in the prices of energy and food, rose by just 0.1% in September after climbing 0.3% in August
Today looks like a return to the “vulnerable” market of last week
For me the question today was whether the market would look like the “vulnerable” market of the first four days of last week–you know when U.S. stocks moved lower, the dollar continued to climb but so did the yen, and emerging market equities fell and it looked like we were moving back to a typical risk-off market–or whether Friday’s strong day for U.S. stocks broke the pattern.
Market decides not to go much of anywhere ahead of the weekend
U.S. stocks stabilized today–thanks to better than expected earnings from Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and, well, Friday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed up 0.02%. U.S. crude oil benchmark West Texas Intermedite fell 0.24% but remained above $50 a barrel at $50.32. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF finished ahead by 0.16%
September Fed minutes point to December rate increase, slow path in 2017
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September 20-21 meeting released today confirm the market’s view of the Fed’s likely course of action on interest rates. The decision at the September meeting not to raise interest rates at that point was a close call–which supports the current view that the Fed will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. Nothing in the minutes suggested that the Fed was chomping at the bit to raise interest rates, however
Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable
It’s not like U.S. stocks didn’t have enough to worry about today. For the day the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index closed at 2136.73, off by 1.24%. That was enough to push the S&P 500 below the 50-day moving average. The index has been flirting with that support level since early September. Maybe in this context the warnings issued today by Wall Street technical analysts feel like piling on–or maybe they are exactly what they seem, that is warnings
Jobs number comes in light but in an OK way
The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised August report of 167,000 new jobs. The September number was less than the 172,000 jobs forecast by economists. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 5% in the month from 4.9% in August. But there’s nothing here to suggest that the Federal Reserve will put a December rate increase on hold. On the plus side, the labor participation rate moved up to a six-month high
Suddenly gold is paying attention to dollar, interest rates, Fed
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Better than expected initial claims number raises odds for December move by Fed
A big drop in initial claims for unemployment reported this morning sets the stage for tomorrow’s report on jobs in September. A strong showing tomorrow would add to conviction in the financial markets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. According to the CME’s FedWatch, the Fed Funds Futures market is now pricing in a 63.9% chance of a December increase
Service sector survey knocks ball out of the park on growth
Now that’s a strong report. This morning the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in at 57.1 for September. That was well above the August reading at 51.4 and above the consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com of 52.8. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a move up to 53.
Mexico gets the big bump in interest rates I’ve been looking for
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
Economic data point–hesitantly–to stronger economy
Treasuries are down today and the U.S.dollar up on the release of the ISM Manufacturing Index. At 51.5 for September, the index was up from 49.4 in August and above the consensus of 49.4 among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Remember that a reading of 50 in this index marks the difference between contraction and expansion so with today’s 51.5 number, this index moves firmly into the economic expansion camp
Jim’s Stock Alerts
Download Jim’s eBook for Free
