Market falls as it moves to price in new odds on a Fed interest rate increase
Yesterday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April meeting has produced a massive change in market sentiment. Monday before release of the minutes financial markets were giving odds on a June interest rate increase of just 4%. After the meeting those odds soared and they continued to move up today to reach 26%.
June is back on the table for an interest rate increase after Fed minutes
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Waiting on the Fed’s minutes and fearing/hoping for a breakdown/breakout from the recent trading range
This afternoon’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be quite so big a deal for financial markets if U.S. stocks weren’t so precariously perched right now between an upside breakout and a downside breakdown.
Another Fed effort to convince financial markets it might raise interest rates next month
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Friday’s retail sales report is the next big data dump on the likelihood of a Fed interest rate increase in June
The Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail report, scheduled for release on Friday at 10 a.m. will go a long way toward showing whether optimism about the economy is justified even after last week’s disappointing jobs report. If retail sales are strong, then economic growth could turn out to be stronger in the second quarter and financial markets can go back to worrying about when the Fed will raise interest rates
Goldilocks confronts a disappointing April jobs report
Under some circumstances you’d expect a weak jobs number to send markets higher because it would signal that the Federal Reserve will put off the next interest rate increase. But not today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off slightly, by 0.07%, as of 11:30 a.m. New York time. The Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.18%. That’s because markets have already priced in a one or none scenario for 2016.
Predicting Friday’s jobs report for April got harder today
Friday’s jobs report for April will be make or break news for any Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the central bank’s June 15 meeting. But today’s contradictory news has been absolutely no use in telling investors what will happen with Friday’s official report.
Friday’s jobs number will be make or break for an interest rate increase from the Fed in June
On Friday morning, before U.S. markets open, the Labor Department will report job gains and unemployment for April. It will take a strong jobs number to offset recent weak reports on U.S. economic growth. And without a strong jobs report the Federal Reserve won’t have grounds for increasing interest rates at its June meeting.
Federal Reserve says just enough to keep June interest rate increase on the table
Look to tomorrow’s GDP numbers to see if the first quarter upsets the Goldilocks story that the financial markets have been reading lately. That story has included just enough economic growth to keep stocks moving higher but not enough growth to prompt the Fed to move quickly on another interest rate increase for 2016.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Fed minutes sort of reassure the financial markets
If you want to read these minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March 16 meeting as assurance that the Fed will go very, very slowly on raising interest rates–so slowly that the U.S. central bank might raise rates just once (or less) in 2016–then you can. And that’s what the markets have done today with the euro up against the dollar, oil up (West Texas Intermediate closed up 5.27%), and the Standard & Poor’s 500 ahead (by 1.05% at the close.)
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