July 28, 2022 | CMG, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
In yesterday’s YouTube video I explained that a recession works by peeling the sock market onion. With each step down in the economy, more stocks report negative surprises or issue negative guidance. Investors and traders sell those stocks–Snap (SNAP) for example fell 39% in the day–and buy the shares of companies that have, for the moment, shown the ability to dodge the economic bullet. (So Alphabet (GOOG) climbs 6.47% when it reports that advertising revenue hasn’t dipped as much as the Snap results threatened. But I pointed out, each time the recession peels away a layer of the stock market onion, it leaves fewer and fewer stocks on the “safe buy” side. And if the recession gets deep enough, many of these safe buys will wind up showing the same problems as earlier hit their sector peers. So tomorrow, Friday, July 29, I’ll be selling shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
July 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, VWDRY |
My fourth pick for my Special Report: Own the Future for Pennies with my 10 Best Penny Stock Picks is Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY). The Danish company has the largest installed capacity of wind turbines in service in the world. 2022 hasn’t been kind to Vestas.
July 26, 2022 | CORN, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, UNG, Volatility |
At the close today, July 26, the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) was up 2.55% and the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) was ahead 4.11%. Both of those commodity plays outgained the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) with its 1.38% move higher. But for consistent gains–and the potential for more–I’d have to say that natural gas is my favorite commodity.
July 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
It’s been tough going lately for investors and traders in wheat, corn, and other agricultural commodities. The Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) is still up 9.07% for 2022 to date as of the close on July 15. But that’s little consolation for anyone who bought into the sector recently. WEAT is down 25.30% in the last month. And the ETF is down 29.36% since I added it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on May 25, 2022.
My advice?
June 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, LNG, Videos, Volatility |
My Quick Pick this week is Cheniere Energy (LNG), a liquified natural gas producer that I currently own in my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and plan to add to my Jubak Picks portfolio as well. The stock has fallen as U.S. natural gas prices have taken a hit after a fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas facility that has caused a backup in U.S. LNG exports. I think it’s a great time to get in on this long-term story at Cheniere, which just announced that it had given the go-ahead to the construction of a new LNG chain at its Corpus Christi facility. That chain won’t be in operation until 2025 but I see the demand for U.S. LNG continuing to rise through then.
June 20, 2022 | BKNG, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
As I noted in my Saturday Night Quarterback post, consumer spending on services is looking weaker by the day and consumers seem to be trimming plans for summer travel. Bookings are slowing at airlines and hotels, for example. And it looks like the summer travel rally that I’ve been looking for is going to be a damp squib rather than a Fourth of July rocket. So I’m beginning to sell some of the stocks that I added in anticipation of that travel rally.
June 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
I’m using the continued weakness in natural gas prices and in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to add the shares to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund was down another 5.90% today to close at $23.78.
June 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
Yesterday, the stock market was up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 gaining 1.46% on the day and the NASDAQ Composite up 2.49%. Listening to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement after the June 15 meeting of its Open Market Committee, Wall Street chose to hear a promise of interest rate cuts as early as the end of 2023 and certainly in 2023. Aggressive interest rate increases in 2022, from this perspective, are just a necessary precondition to those interest rate cuts. Today, the stock market is down with the Standard & Poor’s 500 falling 3.25% and the NASDAQ Composite off 4.08% at the close. The narrative on investors’ and traders’ minds today is the rising odds of a recession–75% odds in favor by 2024 a Bloomberg survey of economists says with 25% odds of a recession in 2023. For a day that trumps the hopes for 2024 interest rate cuts (which would, after all, only materialize if the economy has, indeed, tumbled into recession. I expect this “War of the Two Narratives” to continue for a while
June 6, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
I’m seeing a lot of traders buying Alcoa (AA) Call Options ahead of the company’s July 21 earnings report. The action seems to be most concentrated on the $70 October 21 Call at $75. The stock closed at $64.10 today, June 6, up 3.53%. I think the Call Buying is a result of the very big spread in estimates for second quarter earnings with the high estimate at $4.01 and the lost at $3.19. The consensus for the quart is at $3.66. That would be a huge gain from the $1.49 reported in the second quarter of 2021.
June 6, 2022 | ALB, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
My one-hundredth-and-forty-first YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Danger of a Lithium Drought” went up today. My Trend of the Week video looks at the effects of Chile’s 15-year drought on global lithium production and prices. In particular, I look at Chilean-based national producer SQM in comparison with Albemarle (ALB.) Albemarle has more diversified production and I think it is a better bet due to this diversity of supply, but lithium will still be a volatile area for the short term. Albemarle is a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio (up 162% from August 10, 2018) and my long-term, 50 Stocks Portfolio (up 180% from February 17, 2017.)
May 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick WEAT” went up today. I’m continuing my recent focus on wheat prices as they continue to rise. Higher wheat prices are the result of a perfect storm: the ongoing war in Ukraine, a blockade of Black Sea exports, and reduced yields from India (the 2nd largest wheat producer) due to temperatures and export bans. Teucrium Wheat Fund is the only ETF I’ve found that is focuses exclusively on wheat futures. I think this is a good time to buy and I’ll be adding this ETF to my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow.
May 20, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PANW, Top 50 Stocks |
I’m actually surprised that shares of cyber-security company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose only 10.7% in after-hours trading after the company reported adjusted fiscal third quarter earnings of $1.79 a share. That was ahead of the adjusted earnings of $1.68 a share expected by analysts and it was up from $1.38 a share in the fiscal third quarter of 2021. Revenue of $1.39 billion, up from $1.07 billion a year ago, was ahead of analyst projections of $1.38 billion. Billings rose to $1.8 billion from $1.27 billion in 2021. But the big news, the news that powered the after-hours gains, came when executives at Palo Alto raised their full-year outlook for the third time in as many quarters
