August 17, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, TCEHY, Volatility |
When I added Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on April 29, 2022, and Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) to my Volatility Portfolio on January 3, 2022, I thought two things were about to happen in China. First, I thought that the People’s Bank would unleash enough stimulus to more than compensate for the slowdown in China’s economy. And, second, I thought that we’d seen the end of the regulatory crackdown on China’s big entrepreneurial technology companies. I got both trends wrong.
August 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Walmart shares were up 5.11% today, August 16, at the close. I think it’s fair to call that a relief rally as the company beat lowered earnings and sales forecasts for fiscal second-quarter earnings today. And then confirmed its guidance for the second half of 2022. Remember that the company had slashed guidance twice in the last three months on May 17 and then again on July 26.
August 10, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, DAL, Jubak Picks, MLM |
Despite today’s CPI inflation bounce and the continuation (flagging but still in business) of July’s Bear Market rally, my goal is still to sell into rallies. I don’t think this Bear Market is over and done with. I see another down leg when investors and traders admit that the Federal Reserve isn’t going to be able to get inflation under control with just another 100 basis points of interest rate increases (and, the other part of this hopeful scenario, to begin cutting interest rates by the middle of 2023.) So I’ll be making three sells today out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio to take advantage of the CPI bounce.
August 9, 2022 | AMAT, AMD, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
First, it was Nvidia (NVDA) cutting its guidance for revenue and earnings due on August 24. Today, August 9, it was Micron Technology (MU) warning that its revenue for the fourth-quarter revenue may come in at or below the bottom end of a forecast range provided in the company’s earnings call on June 30. Micron is scheduled to report on September 27. All this comes as the market is on edge anyway ahead of tomorrow’s report on CPI inflation. As of the close on Tuesday, August 9, shares of Micro Technology were down 3.74%. Shares of Nvidia were down another 3.97% after closing down 6.30% yesterday.
August 5, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PXD |
I’ve seen several comments on the site asking this question. I assume we’re talking about oil stocks in the short- and medium-term. In the long term, I think it’s clear that you should be thinking about selling these out of your portfolio at a profit (of course) whenever you can. Demand for oil will fall in the long-term–defining long-term as 5 years or more–or we can all count on figuring out how to survive 120-degree (Fahrenheit) heat. Today, August 5, is a good synopsis of what’s going on with oil and oil stocks in the short- and medium-term.
July 28, 2022 | CMG, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
In yesterday’s YouTube video I explained that a recession works by peeling the sock market onion. With each step down in the economy, more stocks report negative surprises or issue negative guidance. Investors and traders sell those stocks–Snap (SNAP) for example fell 39% in the day–and buy the shares of companies that have, for the moment, shown the ability to dodge the economic bullet. (So Alphabet (GOOG) climbs 6.47% when it reports that advertising revenue hasn’t dipped as much as the Snap results threatened. But I pointed out, each time the recession peels away a layer of the stock market onion, it leaves fewer and fewer stocks on the “safe buy” side. And if the recession gets deep enough, many of these safe buys will wind up showing the same problems as earlier hit their sector peers. So tomorrow, Friday, July 29, I’ll be selling shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
July 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, VWDRY |
My fourth pick for my Special Report: Own the Future for Pennies with my 10 Best Penny Stock Picks is Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY). The Danish company has the largest installed capacity of wind turbines in service in the world. 2022 hasn’t been kind to Vestas.
July 26, 2022 | CORN, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, UNG, Volatility |
At the close today, July 26, the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) was up 2.55% and the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) was ahead 4.11%. Both of those commodity plays outgained the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) with its 1.38% move higher. But for consistent gains–and the potential for more–I’d have to say that natural gas is my favorite commodity.
July 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
It’s been tough going lately for investors and traders in wheat, corn, and other agricultural commodities. The Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) is still up 9.07% for 2022 to date as of the close on July 15. But that’s little consolation for anyone who bought into the sector recently. WEAT is down 25.30% in the last month. And the ETF is down 29.36% since I added it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on May 25, 2022.
My advice?
June 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, LNG, Videos, Volatility |
My Quick Pick this week is Cheniere Energy (LNG), a liquified natural gas producer that I currently own in my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and plan to add to my Jubak Picks portfolio as well. The stock has fallen as U.S. natural gas prices have taken a hit after a fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas facility that has caused a backup in U.S. LNG exports. I think it’s a great time to get in on this long-term story at Cheniere, which just announced that it had given the go-ahead to the construction of a new LNG chain at its Corpus Christi facility. That chain won’t be in operation until 2025 but I see the demand for U.S. LNG continuing to rise through then.
June 20, 2022 | BKNG, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
As I noted in my Saturday Night Quarterback post, consumer spending on services is looking weaker by the day and consumers seem to be trimming plans for summer travel. Bookings are slowing at airlines and hotels, for example. And it looks like the summer travel rally that I’ve been looking for is going to be a damp squib rather than a Fourth of July rocket. So I’m beginning to sell some of the stocks that I added in anticipation of that travel rally.
June 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
I’m using the continued weakness in natural gas prices and in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to add the shares to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund was down another 5.90% today to close at $23.78.
