December 31, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Saturday President Donald Trump reported “big progress” in trade talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping after a long phone call on Saturday. The President added that negotiations were “moving along very well” toward a comprehensive deal. The statement from...
December 21, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Special Reports |
This Special Report was revised--extensively- on December 21. When I posted the first version of this Special Report back in November, the bear market was just a possibility--although a highly likely possibility--and my best projection on how the market would develop...
December 13, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Saudi Arabia has told U.S. refiners to expect far lower oil shipments beginning in January. The reduction seems to be targeted not at reducing global stockpiles but at reducing the visibility of those stocks piles. The United States reports the size of oil stock piles...
December 10, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
I dare you to find something global financial markets aren't worried about. And, moreover, many of the worries are re-enforcing each other today. So, for example, we've got U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, saying on Sunday TV the the 90 day trade truce...
December 7, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, You Might Have Missed |
To the surprise of many, OPEC & Friends--what's known as OPEC+--agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day beginning in 2019. This was a bigger cut than the 1 million barrels a day that commodity markets had expected. Oil prices and oil stocks initially...
December 6, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Even in the current context where countries announce major agreements but no one knows what the details might be, OPEC's decision to announce a cut in production without any agreement on the size of the cut or who will cut production by how much stands out. There is...
December 5, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of what is known as OPEC+ recommended a cut in oil production today. The group's meeting ended without an agreement on the size of the proposed cut. But Russia did agree to participate in the production curbs for six months...
December 3, 2018 | Daily JAM, EQNR, FANG, PXD, Short Term |
As of 2:30 p.m. New York time U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was up 3.04% to $52.48 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude gained 2.84% to break back above $60 a barrel at $61.15. Part of the reason for the gain is a general sigh of relief that the...
November 30, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It's only an advisory group with no decision-making power, but the recommendation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Economic Commission Board is the first step in changing production policy at OPEC & Friends. Today the group told OPEC oil...
November 19, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Monday was quite a day on the oil markets as contrary stories battled for control of prices. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded at $56.41 a barrel at 8:30 a.m.. By 10:02 it was in the red at $55.31. Then it moved back into the black at $56.51 at 11:10 a.m....
November 18, 2018 | Daily JAM |
... volatility in asset classes that range from oil to stocks to the U.S. dollar, as traders and investors try to figure out how to "price in" a metric ton of macro uncertainty scheduled for the next three weeks. Enjoy turkey and family and friends the week because...
November 15, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
This is important--if very, very speculative--if you're trying to figure out if OPEC will cut production by enough to end the oil bear market when it holds its regular meeting on December 6. Today Reuters is reporting that Saudi Arabia is extremely angry at U.S....