January 22, 2025 | Daily JAM |
Assuming that conventional economics still has some validity and that economic history has some predictive value, Paul Krugman, who won his 2008 Nobel-prize in economics for his work on international trading patterns, has put some numbers on the likely effects of the higher tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump. In his Substack (Krugman left the New York Times after 25 years at the end of 2024) he laid out this math.
Imports are about 11% of U.S. GDP. A first-pass estimate would be that tariffs on the scale Trump is threatening would be a 25% sales tax on goods that account for 11% of consumer spending. That would raise the cost of living by almost 3%–well over 3% if, as Trump has said he intends in some speeches, he puts much higher tariffs on imports from China. Since median household income is more than $80k, that’s around $2500 a year for the typical household.
January 20, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Notes You Need, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos |
Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.
January 18, 2025 | Daily JAM |
I expect big market moves from some of new President Donald Trump’s initial batch of executive orders. Trump has promised lots of moves for Day One. Now it remains to be seen what executive orders he actually signs in his first days in office and which ones move the financial markets.
January 13, 2025 | Daily JAM |
On Monday, January 13, China announced that its trade surplus reached almost $1 trillion in 2024. China’s General Administration of Customs said the country exported $3.58 trillion worth of goods and services last year, while importing $2.59 trillion. The surplus of $990 billion broke China’s previous record, which was $838 billion in 2022. Strong exports in December, including some that may have been rushed to the United States before President Donald Trump can take office and raise tariffs, propelled China to a new single-month record surplus of $104.8 billion. When adjusted for inflation, China’s trade surplus last year far exceeded any in the world in the past century.
January 6, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Today the Washington Post reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s aides are exploring tariff plans that would amount to paring back–the Post’s characterization–the tariff plans that candidate Trump proposed on the campaign trail.
President-elect Trump immediately hit back on social media saying the Post story was made up and there were no such sources from his team.
January 5, 2025 | Daily JAM |
A global trade war is like whac-a-mole: One problem pops up after another and in unexpected places. Recent mole to pop up on the trade wars front: Mexico
December 17, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Canada is looking at imposing taxes on major commodities it exports to the United States-—including uranium, oil and potash—if the incoming Trump Administration carries out a threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports.
December 15, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, MCD, Special Reports |
What you need as an investor and what your portfolio needs is a road map to the likely events of the beginning of this new administration. And a take on what those events are likely to mean for the financial markets–and the prices of stocks and bonds. And recommendations on what moves to make to respond to the events of the first 100 days of a Trump Administration. Which is what this Special Report is all about. Here /i’ll give you an investor’s calendar to the first 100 days of Trump; a run-down of the likely effects on the financial markets of the events in the first 100 days; and recommendations for moves that you should make with your portfolio.
December 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
U.S. consumer credit rose by $19.2 billion in October, smashing through the $10.1 billion consensus forecast. And surging from $3.2 billion in September, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. One in three Americans are stockpiling daily necessities like toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to add tariffs to imported goods will lead to higher prices, according to a new survey by CreditCards.com
December 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is What if the economic consensus on tariffs is wrong? It would be really bad news for stocks. The current consensus among economists is that tariffs will be inflationary as companies pass on rising prices to consumers. However, as Nir Kaissar recently wrote in an opinion piece for Bloomberg, this may not be correct. He used McDonald’s as an example. In February, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said that the fast food restaurant has been losing low-income customers–houseold income of $45,000 or less– as the cost of its meals has risen. The price of a Big Mac, for example, has risen 25% since 2019, even though the price of raw materials has not risen at that rate. The operating margin at the company gone up and Wall Street expects that to continue, even as the company has lost customers. The company announced that they’d be offering a new, low price menu in an effort to retain a larger low-income consumer base. If more companies go in the direction of cutting costs to retain customers rather than passing on the cost of tariffs to consumers, Wall Street will be in for a big, unwelcome surprise in earnings since the current analyst consensus looks for operating margins to continue to climb in 2025 and 2026. 2025 is sure to come with volatility and uncertainty until we have a better idea of how high and far reaching the tariffs will be, and how companies will respond to them.
May 4, 2020 | Daily JAM |
The Trump administration is rattling the trade war sword in its scabbard again. And offering so many reasons for slapping new or resuming old tariffs on China. One reason would be to retaliate for what administration officials say is China deception, mismanagement,...
January 6, 2020 | Daily JAM |
It's not exactly a confirmation of President Donald Trump's announcement that the Part 1 trade deal would be signed between the United States and China at the White House on January 15. But China has scheduled a high-level trade delegation for  travel to Washington...
